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Showing posts with label nfl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

love it or leave it

Football, as a game and as an industry, is coughing out its dying days and there is no cure for what ails it.

At least, that what George Will, a prominent American political thinker and opinion leader, would have you believe in his latest column penned for Sunday's Washington Post. While I respect Mr. Will and his thoughtful approach to most subjects he explores, he is dead wrong about America's favorite game.

By now, the controversy surrounding head injuries in the National Football League and their potential effect on past and current players has made headlines in just about every newspaper and magazine in the country. Most notably flung into the public consciousness by the tragic suicide of Junior Seau this spring, at just the age of 43, CTE (or chronic traumatic encephalopathy) resulting from repeated blows to the head from extended professional football careers has become the target for blame on player's post-career health problems, mental issues, depression, and even suicide. The move by the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell in recent years to crack down on hits that lead to head injuries and protect players against themselves when it comes to returning from head injuries has only served to strengthen the call for more research, and ultimately, repurcussions when it comes to the post-career ailments of football players. Drastic rules changes and even the specter of Teddy Roosevelt are bandied about today as potential solutions for an ailing game.

But not by George Will. Mr. Will says the game is as sick as the players who have suffered from their participation in it and the prognosis is just as bleak.

However, there are just too many facts left out of the discussion.

For instance, Will quotes back the numbers of players who are over 300 pounds and participating in the professional game today. While that numbers was just three in 1980, it has now ballooned to 352. Football is literally becoming much bigger as game. Of course, what he fails to account for is that almost all of the players currently participating in the sport at the 300-plus level are offensive and defensive linemen. These are not the players typically involved in head injuries as those take place far more often in the secondary with running backs, linebackers, wide receivers, safeties, and even quarterbacks. The biggest linemen are much more likely to suffer from hip and knee problems or cardivascular issues as a result of their playing weight than they are brain trauma. But one is forced to wonder: Are these men big because they play football or do they play football because they're big?

Football is not the cause of obesity. If anything, heftier players probably maintain healthier levels of fitness through participation in the game.

It should be noted at heart that George Will is a baseball aficiado and old enough to remember when that sport was America's preeminent game. It's not unlikely that he yearns for a return to an era in which that was the case. So, naturally, he can't critique the game without insulting its fans.

Football is entertainment in which the audience is expected to delight in gladiatorial action that a growing portion of the audience knows may cause the players degenerative brain disease. Not even football fans, a tribe not known for savoring nuance, can forever block that fact from their excited brains.

Football can be dangerous. It has been described as participating in a series of weekly car crashes. Injury and pain are part of the game itself. However, football is not alone in its potential for peril. After all, we live in a country that has enjoyed boxing and MMA (sports Will basically puts in the realm of barbarians and those who would watch lions devour them) as well as NASCAR. Even baseball and soccer are not without casualties. America is the birthplace of extreme sports. Follow the linked text and you will see the darker side of sport and the lives they can cost. Examine the popularity of the franchises therein and you'll see that Americans are not afraid of danger in pursuit of entertainment.

After 18 people died playing football in 1905, even President Theodore Roosevelt, who loved war and gore generally, flinched and forced some rules changes. Today, however, the problem is not the rules; it is the fiction that football can be fixed and still resemble the game fans relish.

Will concludes his article by saying that football cannot change because fans like it the way it is and therefore it will die because of the inherent dangers involved. But how does he come to this conclusion? What is the end game here?

Are we supposed to believe that people are going to stop watching football because of its inherent dangers? That seems unlikely. As the game has gotten more dangerous over the timeline used by Will, the sports has exploded in popularity. The sport now commands $9 billion in annual revenue. The cost of the rights to televise even a portions of these games could feed the population of entire countries. Most recently, owners and players simultaneously blinked when facing the potential of a strike costing games because there is too much of a market to ignore the money that can be made. People are not going to find something else to do with their Sundays because some of the players get "jacked up." In fact, the opposite is much more likely.

So what's the alternative? Are politicians going to ban the sport? In what election year might this happen? Teddy Roosevelt ain't walking through that door, Mr. Will. There is not one vote in Congress for outlawing the game of football and if there was the overwhelming opposition to that candidate, Republican or Democrat, would coalesce faster than you can say "SuperPAC." Say what you will about the dangers of the game but on Sunday afternoons that game unites us just as much as listening to baseball on the radio ever did. No, the end of football will be a political decision.

Finally, Mr. Will fails to understand how the advances of technology and natural ebb and flow of changes to the game can rectify this problem. After all, this is a game that survived Mr. Roosevelt's rules changes and has flourished under Mr. Goodell's. It is a game that has marshalled on through the invention of the forward pass. Football changes and those who watch it year in and year out can track its progress. For the good of the game and for the good the players, the game becomes what it needs to be. Thicker, lighter helmets, thinner, quicker linebackers and fewer repetitions of the weekly car crash are all being intergrated into the game as we speak. This is America. There are no problems too big for us to solve.

And football is America. The attitude that emanates from both is largely the same. Love it or leave it.

Friday, October 7, 2011

lies, damned lies and statistics

The famous phrase from Mark Twain was meant to illustrate that numbers can mean anything we want them to mean. But in the age of Moneyball and in the context of fantasy sports, numbers have become more than just critical. They’ve become next to gospel. Fantasy football doesn’t lend itself to Sabremetric analyzation quite like the sport of baseball does. (If it did, I’m pretty sure Umphlett and Jeff would win our league every year.) Sure, there is DVOA and DYAR, but ultimately the only numbers that really matter are yards and touchdowns. That’s why fantasy football is equal parts science and art, numbers and intuition, statistics and equivalents.

What follows is a relatively unscientific look at what teams in the Playoffs!?! fantasy league mirror the most from their NFL counterparts.

Jerry’s Belt Buckle (3-1) = Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Not considered to be a real threat by many coming into the season, there were murmurs that this team would be “better than we expected.” After a somewhat shocking loss to another team performing better than most expected early in the season last week, the questions may be coming for this formerly great team. Still these players in place here are better than we expected. There is a certain chip on the shoulder of this team for being underestimated, disrespected, and forgotten for so long (even if it was at times deserved.) I like this squad to make a playoff push but a surprisingly light schedule so far might have them at their high point already.

black is for sunday (3-1) = Houston Texans (3-1)
This squad’s uncharacteristically fast start has the hype train buzzing all across the league especially as perennial favorites have stumbled out of the gate. But you still have to wonder if this team can get out of its own way. A temperamental personality as a game manager, their head coach has a tendency to outthink himself going into important games. He’s been on the hot seat so long at this point it would be hard to believe he can even recognize the temperature anymore. The team has struggled with injuries to this point but has emerged mostly unscathed and found different ways to win. You just can’t underestimate the ability of this snakebitten lot to come up small at the worst time.

The Commish (2-1-1) = Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
A shocking underperformance to a hated rival seems to still be echoing in the ears of this team from early in the season. Yeah, this team looks largely the same as previous years and we can never underestimate the pedigree of the man (and boy) in charge here. They know how to build champions. Yet, still we know something isn’t quite right here. Running the ball, fundamentals are the hallmark of this proud franchise as traditionalism runs through the DNA of this organization. The fundamentals are off and it’s too early to tell if the adjustments can be made to get this team on track or the flaws will be fatal this time around.

K Rabbits (2-1-1) = New York Jets (2-2)
Come from behind (moral) victories can only hide a team’s flaws for so long. Astute observers knew going into this season that this team was just not as good as in previous campaigns. The trademark bluster and swagger may still be in place but the goods are not. This squad has pretender written all over it and while they may stay in the playoff hunt deep into the season they are destined to come up just short this year.

showmedamoney! (2-2) = Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
The buildup to this season and some surprising but smart drafting put this team in the position that many analysts were predicting a deep run in the playoffs for this squad in the preseason. Then the games started. And while this team undoubtedly has the talent in place to contend, for whatever reason things have just not come together so far. A suddenly old-looking veteran running back and an oddly timed underperformance from Roddy White are causing difficulties for this team. With the talent this team has at the skill positions, you have to like their chances to turn it around but that turnaround needs to come sooner rather than later.

SHolstonKayakPirates (2-2) = Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Isn’t every year this team’s year at this point? And yet, it seems like the man quarterbacking this squad is destined to be ever close to greatness and yet never quite close enough to reach it. Come from behind losses, interceptions, fumbles, this team is never short on finding ways to lose. Erratic but dangerous is the tone this team has seemed to take this year. Still, I expect a push from this team coming out of the bye weeks. With non-dominant teams on top of the standings and the path to the playoffs wide open, anything can happen.

The Institute (2-2) = Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
With the talent this group has in place and the ever-slipping sands of time burying their former championship further under the deluge of history, you have to wonder how many chances these guys have left with the current gallery of rogues. They’ve already shown early in this season they are capable of turning in dominant performances and then the every next week putting in a subpar effort. The scariest part is this team may go as far as Joe Flacco can take it. That’s just not the kind of sentence you want to hear when you think you can contend for a championship.

40 acres & a mule (2-2) = San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
It would be safe to say that no one expected anything from this team coming into the season. A new head honcho (or at least one who acts like he’s new) was still trying to break out of his probationary status. An injury prone running back as the franchise player made a big deal in the preseason. The team came into the year with an unproven and constantly underperforming quarterback. Yet, still somehow, this team is solid. Any given Sunday, this squad can beat you. And for them, that is progress. I’ll tip my hat to them. I was wrong about my preseason prediction of your incompetence.

the icon (1-3) = Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)
Some big preseason and draft editions had some prematurely referring to this lot as a “dream team.” But it looks like some of those predictions came a bit too soon. A coach who constantly puts his team in a place to compete but can never really get over the hump has created years of mounting frustration. Following the model of last year’s Eagles team, an early season quarterback change could be the spark to set this team back on track. Still, every loss that mounts is going to require that much more scratching and clawing to get back into the race.

BackwoodCrazyCajuns (0-4) = Indianapolis Colts (0-4)
This team lost its franchise player way too early this season to hope to compete. It does show the flaw in building your team so profoundly upon the foundation of one player. But when that player has the talent level of these respective stars, it can be a formula for success. An 0-fer season is not out of the question here as though this team has been to the heights of victory it is also well acquainted with the depths of disappointment. There is only one option now. Suck for Luck.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

dollars and sense

Two interesting articles I came across today regarding sports team ownership as business. I'll post some quotes from them here as I will probably touch on the idea in this week's podcast.

First, Malcolm Gladwell's introductory piece from Grantland discusses the value of sports ownership beyond what can be measured on paper in the context of the NBA lockout.

...Forbes magazine annually estimates the value of every professional franchise, based on standard financial metrics like operating expenses, ticket sales, revenue, and physical assets like stadiums. When sports teams change hands, however, the actual sales price is invariably higher. Forbes valued the Detroit Pistons at $360 million. They just sold for $420 million. Forbes valued the Wizards at $322 million. They just sold for $551 million. Forbes said that the Warriors were worth $363 million. They just sold for $450 million. There are a number of reasons why the Forbes number is consistently too low. The simplest is that Forbes is evaluating franchises strictly as businesses. But they are being bought by people who care passionately about sports — and the $90 million premium that the Warriors' new owners were willing to pay represents the psychic benefit of owning a sports team. If that seems like a lot, it shouldn't. There aren't many NBA franchises out there, and they are very beautiful.

The big difference between art and sports, of course, is that art collectors are honest about psychic benefits. They do not wake up one day, pretend that looking at a Van Gogh leaves them cold, and demand a $27 million refund from their art dealer. But that is exactly what the NBA owners are doing. They are indulging in the fantasy that what they run are ordinary businesses — when they never were. And they are asking us to believe that these "businesses" lose money. But of course an owner is only losing money if he values the psychic benefits of owning an NBA franchise at zero — and if you value psychic benefits at zero, then you shouldn't own an NBA franchise in the first place. You should sell your "business" — at which is sure to be a healthy premium — to someone who actually likes basketball. ...



Next, Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN.com writes that sometimes making the best business decision as a team owner leads to bad outcomes for players and fans.

...According to a financial officer for an NFL team, after ticket price, concessions and parking are added up, and then the visitor's share, overhead and taxes are deducted, each sold home seat represents around $30 in profit. This jibes with the numbers reported by Green Bay, the sole NFL club that discloses financial data. For 2010, the Packers sold 566,362 tickets and reported an operating profit of $10 million -- about $18 per occupied seat. The Packers' expenses were high in 2010, as they appeared in four road playoff games. Had they not, the profit per seat would have risen to $25 or $30.

The $30 estimate is a simplified number, but suppose it's roughly accurate. That suggests the 2010 attendance leader, Dallas, had a $21 million profit on seat sales, while 2010's worst-drawing team, Oakland, had a ticket profit of $11 million. That's a $10 million swing between the best case and the worst case for filling the stadium. Because most teams are in the middle of that calculation, going all-out to win with player and coaching salaries will add considerably less than $10 million in profit on packing the stadium. Contrast that with not spending up to the cap, which can add $20 million to $30 million to the bottom line. If your first goal is financial results, losing cheap can look a lot sweeter than winning expensive.

When this is taken into account, seeming nonsense suddenly makes sense. The Bengals, a low-spending team, are refusing to trade Carson Palmer, who says he retired but actually wants out of the Queen City. What's the point of getting nothing for Palmer? The point is to shed Palmer's large salary while creating an excuse for another bad season. When in this situation, teams with winning mindsets shrug and trade the unhappy star for whatever they can get -- think Green Bay with Brett Favre or Philadelphia with Donovan McNabb. Cincinnati management does not make winning its first priority. Losing cheap is fine, and getting nothing for Palmer generates a nifty excuse for a weak 2011 season. ...


Check out the full stories at the links above, feel free to offer your comments below, and tune into the podcast this week for a discussion of the unmeasurable benefits of team ownership in real life and fantasy.