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Showing posts with label weekly picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weekly picks. Show all posts

Thursday, September 14, 2017

behind the numbers week 2

Sliding into your DMs like...

I'm sorry. The old btn can't come to the phone right now. Why? Oh, because he's dead.

I rose up from the dead, I do it all the time. That's right. I'm back. Just like Taylor.

Look what you made me do.

Now to transition from one power-hungry, egomanical, blonde schemer focused only on holding onto her throne to another.

It's been a long three years since I took the black, banished myself to the wall and became chaste from writing fantasy football columns or doing podcasts. But like a social justice warrior in his fight against white toxic masculinity, I am woke AF now. Because I've seen things beyond the wall. I have traveled all over Westeros. I've seen dwarves and giants. I've seen ice zombies and sorcerers. I have learned to serve the many-faced fantasy football gods and pledge my weekly point totals for the old gods and the new. I have learned from the three-eyed raven and revealed that R+L=J. I have cured the greyscale that threatened to silence this column forever. But most of all, "I saw the Night King. I looked into his eyes."


All that to say. I am tanned, rested and ready for the wars to come. So let's knock down this wall (or is it a fence?) with the help of Viserion the Magic Dragon, let's draw Longclaw from its
sheath and steady ourselves for week 2.

The Red Wedding
black is for sunday vs. The Maccabee

Last week was a massacre for both of these houses the likes of which this league has never seen. No, literally, that had never happened before. Not even Qyburn (Qyburn?!? He's not even a maester. Thanks, Binge Mode.) could find in the recorded history of the seven kingdoms where 7 teams in our league failed to top 80 points in one week. It was the lowest scoring week in the history of the league outside of 2008 week 1. (That was the Unbranded year and this season is setting up to be eerily similar to that one but we'll get to that later.) Whether you blame poor offensive line play, the combination of aging quarterbacks leaving their prime while the next generation of young gunslingers tries to gain their footing or the lack of any NFL teams taking the preseason seriously as anything other than a way to milk season ticket holders out of more money, scoring and offense was down across the league and across fantasy in week 1.


This week doesn't bode much better for black is for sunday. Although Aaron made the fatal mistake for last week of not getting Kareem Hunt into his lineup, I made the fatal mistake for my season of not getting him onto my team at the draft. Seriously? Drafting Lamar Miller is like putting a one-handed knight in charge of your Kingsguard. It's not advisable. With explosive receivers capable of producing big plays at any minute and bigger fantasy days inevitably ahead for the league's #1 pick in Bell, I still think The Maccabee is among the league's teams to be feared this season. Even if his team name reminds me of a cross between an all-white Motown doo-wop group and a neighborhood franchise restaurant that millennials are killing. I'll be hearing the familar chords of "The Rains of Castemere" before this week is over more than likely.

The Battle of the Bastards
The Commish vs. K Rabbits

Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them. And some, are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is. - Littlefinger
The Commish is taking Lord Baelish (Peter, please! Thanks, Binge Mode.)  at his word this week. In the flaming wreckage of his Red Keep that came after three dragons of injury laid siege to his team's fortune's in week 1. The question that remains to be answered after that disaster is will he climb or will he fall?

While Kris is holing up in America's version of King's Landing so he can be as close as possible to Trump Tower no doubt, the Master of Whispers tells me that he has recently been traveling to Boston to take in a little baseball (I had no idea you were such a big baseball fan, Kris) and now is planning to head to Bristol for a candlelight vigil to support Jemele Hill. Word is that SC6 will cover it off the top of the show tonight right after they deal with other hard-hitting journalistic issues like how many new Instagrams of Klay Thompson dancing have been posted in the last 24 hours. I have also heard that upon learning that suspended players don't actually get to tally fantasy points that the K Rabbits are marching against fantasy point inequality that results from structural injustices like the fact that they have actually committed crimes.

I expect this matchup to quickly devolve into the fantasy football equivalent of a lively debate in an online comments section about whether or not it is appropriate to say, "All Lives Matter." I, for one, am ready to tear down all the monuments that remind us of our sinister and dark past when people were rewarded not based on merit but simply because of their privilege (or lack thereof) at birth. And, of course, I am talking about all the statutes The Commish has put up commemorating his past championships. We all know you have 5, Jimmy. It's just obscene at this point.

Though the K Rabbits have less going on below the belt than a member of the Unsullied, I expect this to be the week for dissension in the ranks of The Commish franchise over the Carson Wentz-Nelson
Agholar fiasco. I shot a live video of The Commish crushing the Executive Vice Commish's hopes and dreams at the draft. Pretty brutal, Jimmy.

The Battle of Blackwater
40 acres & a mule vs. KayakPirates

Jeff is usually as steady behind the mast head of his pirate ship as Salladhor Saan and as smooth with the ladies. (I mean he takes his wife to a fantasy football draft for their anniversary every year so he's got to have some game.) However, some of his pre-draft moves may have gotten the best of him when he found himself in the unsteady waters of trading draft picks. Though he has proved himself brave, his boneheaded strategy is like Tyrion splitting Queen Dany's army to try to take Casterly Rock. (Seriously? What was he thinking?)

As Beric Dondarrian knows, they always come back less than what they were before. Such seems to be the case with Jordan Howard. Howard in the last round might end being worth less than Tarik Cohen and 25 cookies this year. Still, Aaron Rodgers and Devonta Freeman are poised to ride back in on the backs of their horses like the Dothraki maurading across the tall grass. As Jamie Lannister will tell you, you never fight the Dothraki in an open field.

Loot Train Attack
Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. showmedamoney!

Much like the Lannister forces sacking Highgarden in an effort to pay off the Iron Bank, both of these teams benefited from found money in week 1 as the Minnesota Vikings were made to look like dragon riders by a woefully inept Saints defense. Between Gurley/Lynch/Ajayi, Umphlett couldn't have hired better mercenaries to fight his battles if he had hired the Golden Company. It leaves you scratching your head why then he would spend $20 each on 2 Cardinal backs likely to split an even timeshare. CJ2K couldn't earn back that moniker if he had Thoros of Myr praying to the Lord of Light for resurrection on his behalf.

Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook and Ty Montgomery are likely to be more precious than dragonglass and Valerian steel in Billy's personal fight against the white walkers this season. He better hope those two make it back from Hardhome though. Because if they don't, the Night King will raise them from the dead as ice zombies Darren McFadden and Matt Forte. I guess that's still better than that wight Eli Manning.

The War of the Five Kings
the icon vs. The Institute

You know nothing, Jon Overbay. After literally one, single play being the difference between winning and losing on Monday night (story of my fantasy life in this league, tbh), the icon found themselves as the worst 1-0 team in the history of the Playoffs?!? league.

The Five Kings of this game are:

Tom Brady = Stannis Baratheon - old, exacting perfectionist, sometimes secretly shook
Dez Bryant = Balon Greyjoy - senior statesmen and leader of an island full of dangerous killers
Christian McCaffrey = Joffrey Baratheon - precocious, always playing with dangerous weapons
Odell Beckham = Renly Baratheon - flamboyant, plagued by rumors regarding his sexuality
Leonard Fournette = Robb Stark - brave but strategically unsound

Brady and Overbay have at their disposal the NFL's closest likeness to the Mountain in Rob Gronkowski. But injuries over the course of his career have sapped his speed like the Red Viper's poisoned spear. He may be technically alive but the undead version of him isn't quite the same. He's still strong but having him fight on your behalf in a trial by combat is still a questionable decision. Still one punch or two from him could be a killing blow to the other team's chances.

George R.R. Martin has a better chance of finishing The Winds of Winter before the next season of Game of Thrones airs than Leonard Fournette has of playing 16 games if he keeps handling the load he did in week 1. Given his violent running style and propensity for contact, the carnage he inflicts on the field could soon only be matched by that done to his body. If the Jaguars plan to ride him like this every game, he'll be worse for wear than Robb Stark was with Grey Wind's head attached to his lifeless corpse.

This week is the week we begin to find out whether Hard Knocks star Jameis Winston can lead the Bucs and The Institute to fantasy glory. Sure, he can give an inspiring speech and he can ham it up with the best of them. But he also has a penchant for giving the ball to the other team when it counts. If Winston can be hand of the king that Ser Davos is for John (Snow) Veazey then I'm afraid to tell the rest of the league that winter is coming... again.

In winter, we protect ourselves, look after one another. Remember, as father used to say, when the snows fall and the white winds blow the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

our pets heads are falling off

So this is basically what sums up the first two weeks of the NFL season.



Up is down, down is up. Wide receivers are outproducing running backs. Drew Brees is terrible. Philip Rivers is amazing. And teams are trading away their franchise running backs for pennies on the dollar.

Oh yeah. And AJ is in first place.

The fantasy zombie apocalypse is upon us.

black is for sunday vs. KayakPirates
Some would say my luck has been extra horrible the first two weeks of the season considering I am sitting alone in last place while having the second most points in the league. Some would even say it is frustrating to lose in back to back weeks because of career games from players that were on my team last season. You know what I think some should say? Nothing. I'm tired of their incessant chatter. My luck may not be about to change but Jeff's is... for the worse. Not only is he being plagued by the questions swirling within the team about the true status of RG3 (and out)'s knee. But the sharpest jabs are coming from within his own locker room... from Griffin's own WR1. I don't care if they settle this with a foot race or what but they need to settle it somewhere other than through the media. Between their blatantly racist name and the drama inside the team, I don't want to be anywhere near DC right now. That town is more toxic than ever. I would give Jeff the upperhand as it must be Joique Bell's turn for the best game of his career but there is no one on his team that I traded to him so he has no chance this week. Since Jeff's other running backs are nothing more than a "slow-moving rhombus of plastic spoons," I think I've got it this week.

BackwoodCrazyCajuns vs. The Institute
If the Browns think they know how to tank and play for next year, they need to realize that there is still much to learn from the VZRI playbook in that regard. After a soaring week 1, the league's temporary phoenix just as quickly as he rose from the ashes of his draft came crashing back to earth with twice the momentum. With Spiller sputtering to start the season, the wreckage of the Buccaneers careening to a heap all around the feet of Martin, Fitzgerald and Bryant both slowed by injuries and no answer at quarterback, the Cajun is already looking a lot less formidable than he did back in that hospitality suite. This championship contender is going to need a turnaround in the next few weeks if he hopes to be anything more than a paper tiger. Playing VZ will certainly give him a good start in making progress toward that goal. We're in week 3 and already The Institute is struggling to field nine healthy players.

Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. showmedmoney!
The curse of the number one pick is taking hold with Umphlett's team early. He picks Drew Brees first the one year that every quarterback in the league is playing like Drew Brees except Drew Brees. Then he rounds out his early round selections with the doomed Maurice Jones-Drew and the lame Roddy White. All is not well. Billy snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a Mike Lombardi type general manager move of benching his most seasoned veteran for his rawest rookie. Too cute by half. But White's loss is Julio's gain. Without the services of Steven Jackson for the foreseeable future, you can expect the Falcons offense to be that much more aerial. This is very bad news for Chris who one day will stop drafting Steelers wide receivers. (BTW, unpopular opinion alert. Seattle will not cover at home versus the Jaguars this weekend. There is no chance that team and those fans get as hyped up for Jacksonville as they were last week. I expect the Seahawks to win by two touchdowns but this won't be a pure blowout. Everyone in the game is getting paid.) Still, Bill shows Chris who the second best team from Gates County is this week.

K Rabbits vs. 40 acres & a mule
At this point, Kris' season and draft strategy is turning out like the end of a Scooby Doo episode. Not drafting Rodgers and bypassing him for Brady is the equivalent of "And I would have gotten away with it too if not for you pesky kids." The problem is those "kids" are grown men who get paid to catch footballs but apparently instead of stone blocks for hands. If Tom Brady is screaming at you in the middle of the game, you know you messed up. That guy rarely gets upset and I mean, honestly, if you were him, would you? He rarely has anything to complain about. Meanwhile, Kris' former beau is dating a new team now. One that is somehow far uglier and yet more successful. We should just rename AJ's team "40 points & mediocre talent." Rodgers may be matchup-proof but 40 Acres hasn't yet seen a matchup of Peterson and Charles against a newly despondent Cleveland and Philly's turnstile of a defense. Expect Kris to put an end to this madness this week.

The Commish vs. the icon
As much crap as I have given the Browns over the last 24 hours, I think I see the strategy somewhat. They don't believe in their current lineup. They want to rework the whole team. Lombardi has been angling for this job for years and he finally has it. He's not going to waste his one shot. Stockpiling a bevy of picks and tanking for Teddy is the way to start fresh and finally reinvigorate a once proud and now struggling franchise. The Commish knows a little bit about what that process looks like over the last 4 years. Speaking of which, these are the only two managers to capture a Fantasy Bowl since 2009. This is a prime early season matchup and I like Jimmy this week to use it to catapult himself once again to the top of the league.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

weep not for the memories

Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books and now it's time for rivalry week! One that should be exciting and I'm ready to break down the weekend's coming attractions for you. But before I do, it's important for us to take a moment to remember what we've lost. It's true. The NFL replacement refs are no more. Ed Hochuli's 24 inch pythons will be back stalking the sideline by Sunday but now is a time for reflection and rememberance. Let's all take a moment.
Gone but never forgotten.

Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. K Rabbits
We'll start with what amounts to a virtual elimination game. Umphlett, in a season that started with so much promise, isn't just hoping a for a breakout performance but any legitimate contribution that doesn't end in injury. He has already had four players on his roster miss games or parts of games after going down with various ailments. Kris, meanwhile, better be adding resurrection to the list of his scholarly topics of study. He may have to put it to use on his team before long (and not just because most of his players are likely to die of natural causes before the season ends.) Word out of K Rabbits camp is that Michael Turner was seen carousing late night with one Brent Cozart before receiving his DUI. It's clear this is a team spinning out of control. Maybe Jermichael Finley's agent was right. Considering one of his keepers just went on IR and LaMichael James is still on his roster, I'm not sure Kris is even noticing the outcomes of the games anyway. Still, though the K Rabbits have the vacuum in leadership afflicting the New Orleans Saints, it's the Belt Buckle who has their plight. I'll go with the KRABS in this race to the bottom.
Pick: KRABS by 3

black is for sunday vs. The Institute
Much like VZ's star player LeSean McCoy and Osi Umenyiura, sometimes it's difficult to tell if these two players are just joking or if they really have beef. From the outset of the modern era of the league to journalistic skirmishes to "fuzzy numbers" and his long winning streak over his star-crossed rival, this game has led to some instant classics over the years. Normally, I would be worried about not having any players going after the 4PM EDT (or 1PM for Jimmy or whatever time it is on Mars for Umphlett). However, given my players' propensity to $#!^ the bed the last two weeks in the clutch, I'd rather rest on building a lead and watching someone else try to make a comeback for a change. With Sunday night (Eagles vs. Giants) and Monday night (Cowboys vs. Bears) games that may not yield great stats for either team, VZ could find himself facing a challenge. I'll be sweating it out all the way into late Monday night but I still like my team by the slimmest of margins this week. (Take a break from your blood feud against me for one week, fantasy gods!)
Pick: black by 1

40 acres & a mule vs. showmedamoney!
Apparently, there is a widespread Revolution-style internet outage in Charlottesville. Someone may want to investigate just to make sure the zombie apocalypse is not headed our way any second. I've already been over Kris' odd roster, now I see that 40 acres is keeping two mules in Brian Quick and Ronnie Hillman on the team even though they have been healthy scratches in the majority of their teams' games and combined for as many fantasy points as I have in fantasy leagues this year. (Redraft leagues, go get Brent Woodcox! He's got upside!) Arian Foster actually went for 40 points against the Titans last year topping more than 100 yards on the ground and through the air while scoring three touchdowns. This is a problem for Billy and Andre Johnson because it's not injury but opportunity that is holding his star receiver back now. The bottom line is the Texans have learned how to win without him. Oddly, even with a perfect record so far, Billy is due for his first big game of the season from McFadden and Brady. McFadden has both his best career game against the Broncos and some of his worst games showing his true boom or bust character as a fantasy player. But Brady always torches the Bills. As I said I see an ugly Giants/Eagles game on Sunday night sounding the death knell for AJ's chances. I like Billy here by a comfortable margin.
Pick: show by 7

the icon vs. KayakPirates
In a game that pits our defending champion against the team making the best case so far for this year's championship, we should see some fireworks. Overbay's last couple opponents have not put up much of a fight as he got off to much stronger start this year even with a team that seems significantly weaker than what he had last year at this time. That all changes when Ray Rice comes to town. Rice is a cold-blooded killer... with kindness. He nicely and respectfully ran for 200 yards against the Browns in one of last year's tilts (*ding*) and for a guy that once played for Greg Schiano, he certainly takes out his aggression in much more productive ways than his former coach. Calvin Johnson's stats against Minny have been hit or miss through his career and if Cam Newton doesn't respond to the criticism swirling around him inside of Charlotte this week I think even Catherine might give up on him. I can't think of a more unlikely scenario than Mike Shanahan adopting the Baylor pistol/triple option offense other than RGIII lasting the whole season if he keeps getting hit like he does while playing it. (Newsflash Redskins: He's your whole franchise now. Handle with care.) It's like watching a guy sell his house to buy an Aston Martin then driving it right off a cliff. I don't think the league has historically seen this as one of our more heated rivalries but this week Jeff has a chance to make a statement and I think he does it.
Pick: Pirates by 2 1/2 

The Commish vs. BackwoodCrazyCajuns
A once storied rivalry is once again rising to the top. Brandon has been the captain of the Notre Dame/New York Knicks/Dallas Cowboys of our league for years now. The league is more fun when they're good. They just haven't been in so long it's starting to get hard for anyone to remember it. (Think about this. When Brandon won his last championship, none of the league's children were born yet and a mere fraction of the league's managers were married at the time.) This year though both of these managers are back to their vintage selves. The Commish won the Mike Shanahan running back roulette and is slowly putting together a squad that looks more intimidating as the weeks pass by tweaking his roster slightly with each passing waiver claim. And Brandon has had a resurgence of his competitive fires going full on blast with his previous patented premature bravado and yet with some players in his starting lineup to back up his puffed up promises. Unfortunately, the Cajuns are still decidedly thin on the bench and losing the league's top rusher would be a lot for any manager to overcome. Brandon is still the only manager to beat Jimmy with a championship on the line. It just seems like Jimmy has won every consequential rematch since.
Pick: Commish by 10

Friday, December 2, 2011

weekly picks

Billy 31-18
Jimmy 30-25
Jeff 28-25
Brent 22-26
Umphlett 14-16
Overbay 14-16
VZ 7-4
Brandon 1-4

Thursday, September 8, 2011

numbers never lie (or how ESPN stole my idea)

Are you freaking kidding me? I've been doing behind the numbers in its various incarnations for five years now. We've done columns and podcasts and videos and rap songs and live call-in shows and real time blogs and everything in between. Now, in comes the "worldwide leader" to steal my idea, populate it with prettier people (ok, maybe not Matthew Berry) and try to steal my thunder.

That's right. Next week marks the debut of the new daily fantasy sports show on ESPN named "Numbers Never Lie." (ESPN, you could at least hide your blatant trademark infringement a little better than that. Why don't you just call it "Inside the Numbers" or "Beneath the Numbers" or "(Insert other preposition) the Numbers?")

And all of this after my repeated phone calls, tweets, Facebook messages, emails, and occassional knock on the doors of Michael Smith, Matthew Berry, and Christopher Harris. (Come on, even I'm not lame enough to stalk this guy.) Look, restraining orders mean nothing to a serious journalist, ok? You're gonna have to do better than that if you want to take me down.

But what ESPN doesn't know and my readers do is my column is like an ice cold Coke pulled deep from your refridgerator in a frosty glass bottle. It's classic. It's refreshing. And there ain't nothing like the real thing, baby.

black is for sunday vs. BackwoodCrazyCajuns
Going into this season, there's no doubt that both these managers have something to prove. It's been six years since B-Town busted out and the whispers about black is for sunday never appearing in a championship game have never been louder. Both managers targeted upside at the 2011 draft but one started with one of the top RBs in football and the other started with one of the top RBs on the Cowboys. The Cowboys are facing a tough matchup pitting the Ryan brothers against each other for the first time since that ill-fated hot dog eating contest. This one could be just as ugly as the Boys stand to be stifled by the Jets bruising defense in what could be a low scoring affair. Both teams are affected by that game and the schedules will allow the Cajuns to build a substantial lead. It might prove just a little too much to overcome as the perenially slow starters of this league start slowly again.
Pick: Cajuns by 3

Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. 40 acres and a mule
It's been well-documented by this journalist as well as others how Umphlett built his team around two stud running backs in the offseason through trades and saavy financial techniques. It's been similarly well-documented how 40 acres built their team around two injury prone running backs and zero wide receivers. That was not as saavy. A.J. is already facing his first showdown of the season with anti-awesomeness and the uncertainty surrounding Foster's hamstring has reached proportions unknown to every other human body part except Peyton Manning's neck, Kyrie Irving's toe, and Kris Norris'... ehhh wait a minute... it's too early in the season for the easy joke. I like the chances of young players Matthew Stafford and Julio Jones to have big games this week. I don't like the chances of not as young players Matt Ryan and Robert Meachem to make a leap this year. Meachem, in particular, is the NFL's version of Proactiv. He never breaks out. (And, take that Tony Romo. I can find a way to work Jessica Simpson and her creepy @$$ dad into this column without your help.)
Pick: Jerry by 4.5

showmedamoney! vs. SHolstonKayakPirates
Billy is hoping that Darren McFadden is the new Adrian Peterson and Tom Brady is the new... ummm, Tom Brady. (Seriously, how the hell did you guys let Brady fall that far again? Oh, to draft Peyton Manning? Yeah, good call. You know I've had that Peyton Manning voodoo doll for years. Eventually, that joker was going to work.) showme's manager hasn't been this happy about something since he saw his first pornograph... I mean... scary movie. And he has every reason to be excited about the lineup he is putting on the field each week. Jeff, on the other hand, can't be as excited about Shonn Greene. Seriously, try it. Try to get excited about Shonn Greene. I'll give you a couple minutes. *waiting* Yeah, that's what I thought. Nothing. This week could be the worst thing to happen to Pirates since that horribly thought out fourth sequel this summer or since the Dolly Parton pirate-themed restaurant that I actually had to endure this week.
Pick: The show goes on... by 10

K Rabbits vs. The Institute
Take it from me, Institute. Joe Flacco is not the way to start your season. And as far as Krabs. Take it from everyone who has ever owned him. Frank Gore will be the way to end your season. Just probably not this week. The more I look at both of these teams, the more I feel about them the same way I do about their managers. I just don't like them very much. If I have to give an edge to one, it goes to VZ as I think his team has the stronger core. (Sidebet: Over/under on the number of years since either of these post-athletic managers has been accused of having a "strong core.") You're not 18 anymore, Kris, and neither is Dallas Clark. Schoolboy crushes should be a distant memory. Your constant doodling of "Aaron Norris"... who am I kidding? ... "Kris Rodgers" in your trapper keeper is making us all uncomfortable. Step away from the puff paint pen! And welcome to life without Adrian Peterson.
Pick: The Institute by 6

Game of the Week
The Commish vs. the icon
"what better way to kick off opening weekend than with a rematch of last year's championship. my boys are lacing up the cleats and are ready to give the commish a proper beat down."

That could quite possibly be the least inspiring smack talk I've ever witnessed. It sounds like something King George said right before he got rolled by the Americans in the Revolutionary War. "Well, chaps, we'd jolly like a fair duel today. That is, until we break for tea, of course." Or something said by anyone from Canada. If you're ever about to get in a fight with guys from Canada, just say "Can everyone here raise their hand if their country has ever been occupied by France? Yeah, that's what I thought, b*tches."

I'm glad to see the one and two teams from last year going at it the first week. While I think the icon may have actually outdueled The Commish on draft day and the pressure has never been at greater pitch with Jimmy staring down the barrel of an unprecedented third straight championship and fantasy immortality, I just don't think the icon has it in him to upend the Generalissimo in week 1. I sense a Monday night comeback in the making. The Commish likes the classics too.
Pick: Commish by 1

Sunday, December 26, 2010

final weekly picks standings

Jeff 32-22
Jimmy 37-29
Brent 39-37
Brandon 23-27
VZ 22-24
Umphlett 21-24