behind the numbers week 2

Sliding into your DMs like...

I'm sorry. The old btn can't come to the phone right now. Why? Oh, because he's dead.

I rose up from the dead, I do it all the time. That's right. I'm back. Just like Taylor.

Look what you made me do.

Now to transition from one power-hungry, egomanical, blonde schemer focused only on holding onto her throne to another.

It's been a long three years since I took the black, banished myself to the wall and became chaste from writing fantasy football columns or doing podcasts. But like a social justice warrior in his fight against white toxic masculinity, I am woke AF now. Because I've seen things beyond the wall. I have traveled all over Westeros. I've seen dwarves and giants. I've seen ice zombies and sorcerers. I have learned to serve the many-faced fantasy football gods and pledge my weekly point totals for the old gods and the new. I have learned from the three-eyed raven and revealed that R+L=J. I have cured the greyscale that threatened to silence this column forever. But most of all, "I saw the Night King. I looked into his eyes."

All that to say. I am tanned, rested and ready for the wars to come. So let's knock down this wall (or is it a fence?) with the help of Viserion the Magic Dragon, let's draw Longclaw from its
sheath and steady ourselves for week 2.

The Red Wedding
black is for sunday vs. The Maccabee

Last week was a massacre for both of these houses the likes of which this league has never seen. No, literally, that had never happened before. Not even Qyburn (Qyburn?!? He's not even a maester. Thanks, Binge Mode.) could find in the recorded history of the seven kingdoms where 7 teams in our league failed to top 80 points in one week. It was the lowest scoring week in the history of the league outside of 2008 week 1. (That was the Unbranded year and this season is setting up to be eerily similar to that one but we'll get to that later.) Whether you blame poor offensive line play, the combination of aging quarterbacks leaving their prime while the next generation of young gunslingers tries to gain their footing or the lack of any NFL teams taking the preseason seriously as anything other than a way to milk season ticket holders out of more money, scoring and offense was down across the league and across fantasy in week 1.

This week doesn't bode much better for black is for sunday. Although Aaron made the fatal mistake for last week of not getting Kareem Hunt into his lineup, I made the fatal mistake for my season of not getting him onto my team at the draft. Seriously? Drafting Lamar Miller is like putting a one-handed knight in charge of your Kingsguard. It's not advisable. With explosive receivers capable of producing big plays at any minute and bigger fantasy days inevitably ahead for the league's #1 pick in Bell, I still think The Maccabee is among the league's teams to be feared this season. Even if his team name reminds me of a cross between an all-white Motown doo-wop group and a neighborhood franchise restaurant that millennials are killing. I'll be hearing the familar chords of "The Rains of Castemere" before this week is over more than likely.

The Battle of the Bastards
The Commish vs. K Rabbits

Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them. And some, are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is. - Littlefinger

The Commish is taking Lord Baelish (Peter, please! Thanks, Binge Mode.)  at his word this week. In the flaming wreckage of his Red Keep that came after three dragons of injury laid siege to his team's fortune's in week 1. The question that remains to be answered after that disaster is will he climb or will he fall?

While Kris is holing up in America's version of King's Landing so he can be as close as possible to Trump Tower no doubt, the Master of Whispers tells me that he has recently been traveling to Boston to take in a little baseball (I had no idea you were such a big baseball fan, Kris) and now is planning to head to Bristol for a candlelight vigil to support Jemele Hill. Word is that SC6 will cover it off the top of the show tonight right after they deal with other hard-hitting journalistic issues like how many new Instagrams of Klay Thompson dancing have been posted in the last 24 hours. I have also heard that upon learning that suspended players don't actually get to tally fantasy points that the K Rabbits are marching against fantasy point inequality that results from structural injustices like the fact that they have actually committed crimes.

I expect this matchup to quickly devolve into the fantasy football equivalent of a lively debate in an online comments section about whether or not it is appropriate to say, "All Lives Matter." I, for one, am ready to tear down all the monuments that remind us of our sinister and dark past when people were rewarded not based on merit but simply because of their privilege (or lack thereof) at birth. And, of course, I am talking about all the statutes The Commish has put up commemorating his past championships. We all know you have 5, Jimmy. It's just obscene at this point.

Though the K Rabbits have less going on below the belt than a member of the Unsullied, I expect this to be the week for dissension in the ranks of The Commish franchise over the Carson Wentz-Nelson

Agholar fiasco. I shot a live video of The Commish crushing the Executive Vice Commish's hopes and dreams at the draft. Pretty brutal, Jimmy.

The Battle of Blackwater
40 acres & a mule vs. KayakPirates

Jeff is usually as steady behind the mast head of his pirate ship as Salladhor Saan and as smooth with the ladies. (I mean he takes his wife to a fantasy football draft for their anniversary every year so he's got to have some game.) However, some of his pre-draft moves may have gotten the best of him when he found himself in the unsteady waters of trading draft picks. Though he has proved himself brave, his boneheaded strategy is like Tyrion splitting Queen Dany's army to try to take Casterly Rock. (Seriously? What was he thinking?)

As Beric Dondarrian knows, they always come back less than what they were before. Such seems to be the case with Jordan Howard. Howard in the last round might end being worth less than Tarik Cohen and 25 cookies this year. Still, Aaron Rodgers and Devonta Freeman are poised to ride back in on the backs of their horses like the Dothraki maurading across the tall grass. As Jamie Lannister will tell you, you never fight the Dothraki in an open field.

Loot Train Attack
Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. showmedamoney!

Much like the Lannister forces sacking Highgarden in an effort to pay off the Iron Bank, both of these teams benefited from found money in week 1 as the Minnesota Vikings were made to look like dragon riders by a woefully inept Saints defense. Between Gurley/Lynch/Ajayi, Umphlett couldn't have hired better mercenaries to fight his battles if he had hired the Golden Company. It leaves you scratching your head why then he would spend $20 each on 2 Cardinal backs likely to split an even timeshare. CJ2K couldn't earn back that moniker if he had Thoros of Myr praying to the Lord of Light for resurrection on his behalf.

Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook and Ty Montgomery are likely to be more precious than dragonglass and Valerian steel in Billy's personal fight against the white walkers this season. He better hope those two make it back from Hardhome though. Because if they don't, the Night King will raise them from the dead as ice zombies Darren McFadden and Matt Forte. I guess that's still better than that wight Eli Manning.

The War of the Five Kings
the icon vs. The Institute

You know nothing, Jon Overbay. After literally one, single play being the difference between winning and losing on Monday night (story of my fantasy life in this league, tbh), the icon found themselves as the worst 1-0 team in the history of the Playoffs?!? league.

The Five Kings of this game are:

Tom Brady = Stannis Baratheon - old, exacting perfectionist, sometimes secretly shook
Dez Bryant = Balon Greyjoy - senior statesmen and leader of an island full of dangerous killers
Christian McCaffrey = Joffrey Baratheon - precocious, always playing with dangerous weapons
Odell Beckham = Renly Baratheon - flamboyant, plagued by rumors regarding his sexuality
Leonard Fournette = Robb Stark - brave but strategically unsound

Brady and Overbay have at their disposal the NFL's closest likeness to the Mountain in Rob Gronkowski. But injuries over the course of his career have sapped his speed like the Red Viper's poisoned spear. He may be technically alive but the undead version of him isn't quite the same. He's still strong but having him fight on your behalf in a trial by combat is still a questionable decision. Still one punch or two from him could be a killing blow to the other team's chances.

George R.R. Martin has a better chance of finishing The Winds of Winter before the next season of Game of Thrones airs than Leonard Fournette has of playing 16 games if he keeps handling the load he did in week 1. Given his violent running style and propensity for contact, the carnage he inflicts on the field could soon only be matched by that done to his body. If the Jaguars plan to ride him like this every game, he'll be worse for wear than Robb Stark was with Grey Wind's head attached to his lifeless corpse.

This week is the week we begin to find out whether Hard Knocks star Jameis Winston can lead the Bucs and The Institute to fantasy glory. Sure, he can give an inspiring speech and he can ham it up with the best of them. But he also has a penchant for giving the ball to the other team when it counts. If Winston can be hand of the king that Ser Davos is for John (Snow) Veazey then I'm afraid to tell the rest of the league that winter is coming... again.

In winter, we protect ourselves, look after one another. Remember, as father used to say, when the snows fall and the white winds blow the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.

after the numbers episode 5

after the numbers hosts the first ever five-way playoff preview pod.

after the numbers episode 3

the icon joins the podcast to discuss this season's surprises so far and the Adrian Peterson saga.

after the numbers episode 2

following this weekend's draft, after the numbers catches up with the league's managers to hear their pre-season analysis.

zombies! aliens! vampires! dinosaurs!

I considered a Scooby Doo musical sequel this year as I know how much everyone enjoyed the first one. But it's just such a work of art I think I'd rather leave it undisturbed to fascinate avant-garde fantasy football minds for years to come. That being said, I couldn't let Halloween come and go without looking at what's haunting the league this week so let's get to it.

The carryover storyline from the weekend of course is The Commish getting monster mashed out by The Institute. And the predictable reaction of the league to this crushing and humiliating defeat.



The unlikely sudden popularity of VZ in league circles was enough to match the ratings for one AMC cable drama hit featuring moaning reanimated carcasses and lots of head shots. But that's not the only thing that The Institute has in common with The Walking Dead. His team is back from the dead.

Obviously, I have enjoyed the down year so far for my rival (and still hope to get two wins out of it).
And I don't have much of a beef with a manager choosing to pursue a strategy that I would not adopt for my own team. You don't get to tell me how to manage my team and I don't get to tell you how to run yours. Those are the rules and when everyone is trying to win that sovereignty leads to the most entertaining league.

What I have worried about is the fire sale coming before the trade deadline for The Institute's best assets that don't have any value going into next year. (The name "Calvin Johnson" comes to mind.) Now VZ is at least ostensibly a contender for the playoffs. A game and a half out of the playoffs with 8 days before the trade deadline hits, The Institute is some inexplicably in the mix. I could even make an argument that he has a better shot at the playoffs than some teams above him because other squads have a definite ceiling while VZ at least has the upside of players coming back from injuries in the next few games.

There's every reason to believe that The Institute will have a stronger second half of the season than first half given the realities of his roster. Much to The Commish's chargrin, VZ will have a say in who makes the playoffs whether he manages to sneak his own team in or not. I just hope his effect is felt as a spoiler on the field and not as a kingmaker through trades.

The Commish was not the only team to suffer a fantasy tragedy this week however. As black is for sunday's hopes of a five game win streak succumbed to a grisly death at the hands of the Jason Voohrees of ties of our league: the KRabbits. In the history of our league, there have been 16 ties. Kris has been a manager involved in 5 of them. He is well overrepresented as a serial offender. In 2004, the KRabbits managed to tie The Commish in both of the teams' meetings. In sum, I should have been on the lookout for Golden Tate on Monday night. No one is the master of the come from behind tie like Kris.

We don't have to live this way. We don't have to spend our seasons in fear that our teams will be dragged from our beds by unseen demons of ties that would edge out otherwise worthy teams from playoff contention.

It's bogus. And it's unfitting for the greatest fantasy football league in America.

There are leagues that have fractional points. For each 1/10th of a point added to the decimal place of scoring, you make ties ten times less likely. Every year this situation affects one or more teams that may be jockeying for playoff position. It's only a matter of time before someone ties in a playoff game, or even worse, the championship.

I've seen this happen in a league where I am the commissioner. I tied with someone in a semi-final game. I was determined the winner through the normal Yahoo tiebreaker procedures and the next week my team went on to win the championship. There was some bitterness. Needless to say, the league by unanimous vote adopted fractional scoring before the next season began and we haven't had a tie since.

Every year that we go through the offseason not addressing this issue in our rules we are running a risk. We have had at least one tie in this league every year of its existence except for two and four times we have had multiple ties in the same season. How long until one of this is in the playoff rounds?

We need to fix this rule in 2014 to adopt fractional points. (Or at the very least declare some other system rather than the Yahoo tiebreaker will determine who is the official champion.) We should not wait until there is a blemish on our trophy before we put this issue six feet under.

The talk of the NFL this week has been Dez Bryant and his sideline tirade during the latest heartbreaking loss to beset the Dallas Cowboys franchise. Many were tricked into thinking that Bryant's treatment of Tony Romo and other teammates was a sign of disrespect. But if you watch the video, you'll see that Bryant really was just trying to pump up his teammates and stoke their competitive fire. Now, yes, he was doing it very demonstrably and very confrontationally but he was not doing it disrepectfully. His basic message was, "We're better than this." (A sentiment I'm sure The Commish was yelling at his players on Sunday as well.)

There's nothing wrong with being competitive. If Tom Brady barks at his receivers or his coaches, it's treated as leadership and a will to win. If "diva receiver" Dez Bryant does it, then he just must be complaining that he's not getting the ball enough. First, he wasn't. Second, he should be getting the ball more. Bryant may not be Calvin Johnson. But he's as Calvin Johnson as the Cowboys have on that roster. And catches like this are not going to be had by any other player taking the field on Sundays in Jerry World.

So I say go for it, Dez. Let out that competive spirit. Even if it looks more like Carrie than Casper the friendly ghost. The Cowboys can only benefit from someone pushing them a little harder. Romo, Witten and Jason Garrett just don't strike me as the rah-rah type.

Happy Halloween, everyone! Have fun! Hope the kids are safe trick or treating (hopefully, they don't go too close to Kris' house). And I hope at least one of the league's junior members is dressed like one of these guys.

And I will call him....Mini Reid!!! #kcchiefs #andyreid pic.twitter.com/TVrPhamuEh
— B.J. Leeper (@leeperbj) October 27, 2013

Bill Belichik @PatriotsLife @Patriots pic.twitter.com/emYy9sZEWx
— Courtney Tomasi (@CTomasi12) October 28, 2013

Happy Halloween from my 1 yr old son! @mikeditka & @espn #Halloween pic.twitter.com/25uFxR8p
— Christina Cryer (@ChristinaCryer) October 31, 2012

the meme team

"You know on Sundays like this that he'd do this for free!"

"It's like watching a little kid out on the field for the first time!"

"He's just having fun out there!"

No, those aren't quotes about The Institute ruining The Commish's weekend by winning his second game of the season. They're about this guy:



I know. Favre has come back more times than Jason Voorhies and this is all a media stunt perpetrated by ESPN to get clicks and views during the long stretch of bye weeks during the NFL season. But it's still fun to speculate, particularly when Favre's agent is saying things like this:

His arms look like a blacksmith's arms. He rides a bike probably 30-50 miles a day. He runs four or five miles a day. He's coaching at the high school and they're undefeated. He loves it. His body fat is 7.5 percent and he weighs 225 pounds. He could play today, better than a lot of them out there today.

Who is coming back? Brett Favre or Paul Bunyan? Is Bus Cook the agent for a quarterback or a mythical greek alien deity? Even John Madden never gushed about the old gunslinger quite like that.

Here's the question. Is Brett Favre at 44 really better than many NFL quarterbacks currently playing in the league? I often hear and have said myself that it is amazing that in the population of the entire world we can't even find 32 guys who can competently play quarterback at the highest level. But I decided to do a little experiment. A power ranking of the quarterback situations of the 32 NFL teams.

1. Peyton Manning, Broncos
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Tom Brady, Patriots
5. Andrew Luck, Colts
6. Tony Romo, Cowboys
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions
9. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
10. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
11. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
12. Joe Flacco, Ravens
13. Eli Manning, Giants
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
15. Cam Newton, Panthers
16. Philip Rivers, Chargers
17. Jay Cutler, Bears
18. Michael Vick/Nick Foles, Eagles
19. Alex Smith, Chiefs
20. Andy Dalton, Bengals
21. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
22. Sam Bradford, Rams
23. Terrell Pryor, Raiders
24. Jake Locker, Titans
25. Geno Smith, Jets
26. EJ Manuel, Bills
27. Carson Palmer, Cardinals
28. Mike Glennon, Buccaneers
29. Matt Schaub/Case Keenum, Texans
30. Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
31. Jason Campbell/Brandon Weeden/Brian Hoyer, Browns
32. Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel/Josh Freeman, Vikings

You don't have to agree with my slotting of all of the potential QBs to understand the point of this exercise. It would be tough to argue that the top 19 haven't earned the right to start for an NFL team. If the standard is they give their teams under the right circumstances a chance to compete for a Super Bowl, I think these guys fit the bill. And I could make a pretty solid argument for 20-28 that we need more time before we can make a definitive decision (with the exception of Carson Palmer who is done). That leaves only four teams with a truly awful QB situation that will require a fix as soon as the 2014 draft.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the NFL quarterbacking situation is ideal. I still think there are at least 32 men on earth capable of doing the job. However, what would the teams situation look like if we did a similar list for running backs? Or tight ends? Or left tackles? Would we consistently find 20 teams with highly stable situations or only four teams with a desperate immediate need at those positions? I doubt it. We perceive quarterbacking to be weak because we focus so much on every mistake and foible, however I doubt the state of other positions is any different. Name me 20 "shutdown" cornerbacks in the NFL. You can't. They don't exist. In all likelihood, quarterback is the deepest position in the league. And I couldn't slot Brett Favre in any higher than 27 on the above list. That's not at an elite or even serviceable level. He doesn't need another shot at the league. We need to move on.

While we're on the topic of once great players well past their prime, let's turn to the BackwoodCrazyCajuns.

It seems once again he has not been able to outrun the fantasy gods. In a season that began with such promise, Brandon actually showed up to the draft. (With a woman! Who actually came to draft... Most of it.) Step one in his rehabilitation complete.

As he continued his penance, the Cajuns had by almost all accounts their best draft in years. (Even if also the slowest.)  Getting two of the consensus preseason top 5 RBs and Dez Bryant in what many expected to be an elite season for his production seemed like enough to put Brandon back in contention after so many disappointing finishes in recent years.

Then the Cajuns were who we thought they were when they took the damn field. Rolling to a 4-2 start, looking good for a playoff spot and nearing the halfway point, hope sprang anew in Brandon's locker room.

Then things took a dark turn.

First, it was a shoulder injury to Doug Martin knocking him out of the game early and draining his value for the week. CJ Spiller's struggles continued as his multi-week fight against an ankle injury resulted in one of the poorest games of his career. And just when it was clear week 7 and the momentum was lost? The death blow. Reggie Wayne. Heart and soul of the team. Veteran leadership. Nationally televised game with monster ratings. Torn ACL for all of America to cringe from.

Brutal.

And now I worry if Brandon can recover in time for this week's game. When a team gets rocked like that, it's important to get right back on your feet and keep fighting. Brandon made no pickups  on the waiver wire, no trades, not even a change to the starting lineup. Dead silence coming from Cajun HQ. Meanwhile, he has two QBs on bye, two RBs unlikely to play this week and a WR spot that must be solved both in the short and long term. He also has a winnable game against 40 Acres & a mule who is dealing with their own bye week issues. (And has 3 TEs currently on the roster. Go for the record! *crowd starts to quietly chant "Quinn Sypniewski"*)

After last week, Brandon may not be a champion again following this season but we will get to see if he still has a champion's heart over the next few weeks.

Following on the theme of questionable decisions by team authorities, there's a column I enjoy perusing every week by Bill Barnwell on Grantland called "Thank You For Not Coaching." Basically, it's a review of the best and worst decisions of the week by NFL head coaches. It goes well beyond the obvious choices and really attacks those few crucial moves that will actually affect the outcome of a game on any given Sunday. (BTW, if we listed the 32 NFL teams by their coaching situations we would not get even close to 20 relatively stable coaches. It's a hard job but that's no excuse to be bad at it.)

If I have to give out my own Thank You For Not Coaching Award this week, it goes to Leslie Frasier of the Minnesota Vikings. Not only have you jostled your quarterback position all year and already burned through three QBs, including the one who got you to last year's playoffs. You went Josh Freeman just two weeks after signing him. Freeman is not exactly legendary for his meticulous study of the playbook and you dialed up 53 passes in his first start? It's not as if the score dictated such a game plan. The Vikings were within two touchdowns going into the fourth quarter.

There have been reports that Adrian Peterson is dealing with a hamstring issue. But it wasn't severe enough to save him from running a meaningless play at the end of the first half as Barnwell points out.

For those of you who incurred hazard pay in watching the Giants-Vikings on Monday night, sorry about the Vikings handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson for a meaningless draw just before halftime. Peterson might be more likely to break a big one than just about anybody, but this draw was of little consequence and could have possibly led to a Peterson injury, which nobody wanted to see.

Unfortunately, that was one of only 13 carries for Peterson on the night as Freeman flung the ball all over the field and off the field in completing just 20 of his 53 attempts. (To be fair, he completed 21. It just so happened one was to the Giants.)

That kind of ineptitude can't be explained by injury or game plan or poor preparation. It's inexplicable that any coach would have a talent the level of AD on his sideline and not think within the confines of a 60 minute game that he should putting the ball in his hands far more than a quarterback still trying to learn all of his receivers' names.

This is the game we choose to play. And the Leslie Frasiers of the world will decide our fantasy fates.

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The Commish joins the podcast to discuss the current state of The Institute franchise and other fantasy football disappointments.

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The Institute joins behind the numbers ahead of week 2.

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behind the numbers returns with the icon announcing breaking news detailing his trade with The Institute. We go on to discuss if The Commish is overrated, the injustice of NCAA rules and look ahead to the keeper deadline in this megapod.

preseason power rankings

10. BackwoodCrazyCajuns
Starters: 10
Bench: 10

In some ways it pains me to rank Brandon this low. I honestly don't hate his team this year and considering where he started, I have few qualms with his draft strategy. He clearly put in the time with research. He is obviously more emotionally invested in this year's outcome than he has been recently. And I think he was rewarded with his best team in four years. But considering he has finished 10th, 9th, and 10th while amassing just nine victories over the past three seasons, he still has a ways to go to get back into contention.

You have to love Drew Brees as a leader for this team even if he is bound for a regression back toward the mean after his otherworldly season last year. The receiver trifecta of Nicks, Bryant, and Welker is also bound to impress though for a team hoodwinked by injuries last year Brandon has not seemed to have learned any lessons about brittle players. The weak spot of this team is at running back where Frank Gore and Beanie Wells are both poised to fall off a cliff this year. I predict neither of these guys will be starting for Brandon or their respective NFL teams by week 4. Additionally, I have yet to see a place for Fred Davis in the new RGIII-led Redskins offense. This could also hold the Cajuns back on a week-to-week basis.

I'm not ready to cast Brandon as the modern day Prometheus of our league whose Burgergate theft has doomed him to a life of perpetual fantasy football torment. I think he can get back to the top. It might just take a couple more years to make up the ground.

9. K Rabbits
Starters: 9
Bench: 7

It would be fair to say I have been wrong multiple times historically post-draft about the relative strength of Kris' teams. Still, that's not going to keep me from picking against him every year. This version forms the bottom tier of the league with Brandon this year.

Starting from his weakest spot keeper wise since the system began, the draft did not go well from there as he spent the next few hours after the first round expired fully engulfed by the gap of concern. The average age of Kris' starters for week 1 is just a hair under 30 years old. He set the record by leaps and bounds for most players 30 or older selected in the first half of a draft.

That being said I actually do like Helu, Amendola, Donald Brown, and even LaMichael James to get a look at fantasy relevance sometime this season. When his older players are each injured in shuffleboard accidents, these guys could get their chance to shine and Kris could prove me wrong once again. But I'm not going to bet on it.

8. 40 Acres & a mule
Starters: 5
Bench: 9

7. KayakPirates
Starters: 8
Bench: 4

At some point during draft day I realized that it was the set from some weird body swap comedy between the draft strategies of these two teams. I don't know if it was the Crouton's hyperventilative moment at the idea of the torch being passed from father to son or the strange bathroom break by AJ witnessed live onscreen from two states away but something threw these managers off their game last Saturday. While the usually punchdrunk (and just regular drunk) 40 Acres squad adopted a clear safe strategy this year, it was the Pirates who swung wildly at each passing draft pick confounding the other managers at every turn.

I have no problem with Fitzgerald and Cruz for AJ but the draft took a turn for the worse at Eli Manning and Shonn Greene. Those are the kind of safe picks that turn out to be anything but in the end. Meanwhile, Jeff not only uncharacteristically avoided the wide receiver position this year, he did so in favor of two talented players whose track record runs longest on injuries rather than actual accomplishments.

AJ never really recovered after round 3 and even his best Jeff Smith imitation was left wanting. You'll never finish 5th as many times as Jeff has. Stop dreaming. And Jeff went the other way after his wayward turn at the top of the draft assembling some capable wide receiver depth and a potential long-term keeper in RGIII. I don't like either of these teams to make much noise this year but I'm already interested to see how this year's outcome may affect next year's draft strategy for both squads.

6. The Commish
Starters: 7
Bench: 5

No matter where he finishes, no team is talked about more and ink is spilled on no one more than The Commish. When this league was first started, no one figured out how to win more consistently than Jimmy. And just when the rest of the league started to catch up, the shift to a keeper league and the most dramatic change in stategy in our history once again left Jimmy at the top of the pile once the dust settled. But now a changing NFL may be The Commish's greatest challenge. For a manager who has historically stuctured his team around dominant game-controlling players, particularly at the running back position, Jamaal Charles' jersey has to look odd hanging in that closet. The lack of gamechangers and the adoption of spread offenses and committee attacks has required a new mold for The Commish and I'm not sure he's made it back to that drawing board yet.

Yes, he has every reason to grow complacent now that he has twice as many championships than anyone else in the league. And there are far more worthy distractions from fantasy football currently in Jimmy's life than at any time in the past. But I don't think it's true that The Commish has lost his fire or his dogged determination or his commitment to excellence. What he has lost is his blueprint. And that's not coming back even though I think it would be foolish to think that The Commish himself won't.

5. Jerry's Belt Buckle
Starters: 6
Bench: 2

I'm not going to say Umphlett pooped the bed after starting the draft with solid keepers. But AJ wasn't the only one to take a bathroom break on camera in the middle of the draft. Sweet 'N Low got in on that action as well. That can't be a good omen, right? Chris' crazy man love for Matt Forte and Greg Jennings were solid and predictable. It was the Mike Wallace pick that really threw that draft for a loop. Umphlett is a strong manager because he is disciplined. He adopts a best player available mentality on draft day and is very likely to maximize the output of his staters on game day. However, sometimes when discipline is left wanting, creativity is required. Wallace may have been the best available but Steve Smith and Brandon Lloyd were both better fits for the team he had yet to fully build.

Starting with a solid foundation, the squad was able to construct some running back depth but I think Chris will be regretting his selection of Kevin Smith over getting the Lynch handcuff Turbin as early as week 1. And while Philip Rivers, Stevie Johnson, Lance Moore, and even Michael Crabtree could provide value as backups either by earning playing time or in a trade, having no back up plan for Jason Witten's lacerated spleen was a miscalculation. I have no studied what the outcomes have been like for tight ends who start the season down a spleen but I can't think they are that positive. Solid team here but a questionable draft left Umphlett weaker than he should have been in some spots.

4. black is for sunday
Starters: 3
Bench: 3

There will be a wide variance of opinions on this team. It could legitimately renamed Steven Jackson and the lottery tickets as nothing is guaranteed for just about every player on this squad. But it is a vintage black is for sunday draft result. Nine players on the team are either rookies or second year players. Almost all of them have yet to hit what would be considered the apex of their careers. But I am firmly in the camp that I'd rather get on the train one stop too soon than get off one stop too early. At some point, I'm going to find the right place of origin for getting to the destination of a fantasy championship. Will that be this year? It's too soon to tell. I will say I feel like this team contains more players destined for a breakout than my previous few entries. And the thing about lottery tickets is you only need to cash in on the right one.

3. the icon
Starters: 2
Bench: 8

2. showmedamoney!
Starters: 1
Bench: 6

These teams finished the year similarly last year and started it similarly this year making a week 1 matchup of last year's fantasy championship all the more appropriate. Beginning with a solid foundation but also an early round keeper left these teams in a strong but complicated drafting position. With the recent developments for MJD, I'd rather have him on my squad than Andre Johnson, the more interesting rivaly for these two might be at the RB2 position with Fred Jackson vs. Trent Richardson. Billy doesn't need as much out of that spot as I expect Brady will end up with significantly better stats than Cam Newton.

Both of these squads will have to turn to their bench for help at some point this season because that's how fantasy football works and when they do they could find the cupboard bare. Both squads had uninspiring drafts after round 8 minus their respective keepers and that could haunt them once the bye weeks and injuries hit. I think Billy did the better job of shoring up his WR3 and TE positions and that's why I have him leapfrogging he defending champ. But we won't have to wait long to see where these two squads stand. This will be week 1's game of the week.

1. The Institute
Starters: 4
Bench: 1

As much as I have historically underrated the K Rabbits, I have similarly overrated The Institute's squads. Maybe it is because of my begrudging respect for my long time rival or maybe it is because we tend to draft in similar positions and target the same group of players but I always like where VZ ends up after the draft is finished. This year though I feel like he is a one man tier at the top of the league.

The strength of this squad is its bench. VZ didn't do anything unpredicatable but he didn't have to in order to form a strong unit. He had the keepers in place and the motivation that this was his last go-round with McCoy. I believe he capitalized. From snagging Mathews and Marshall at the turn of round 2/3 to stealing Rashard Mendenhall back at similar keeper value, The Institute used the VZRI to his full advantage this year. At every selection, he made the smart, solid pick and that's why he walks away from draft day with the best squad. As much as both managers will detest the comparison, this draft reminds me of some vintage Commish draft boards and I do think we will hold it up as a new blueprint for fantasy championships going forward by the end of the year.

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The Institute joins the podcast to break down the playoff matchups and look back the season.

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The Institute joins the podcast for Rivalry Weeks in the Playoffs!?! league.

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Listen in as we break down the entire league post-draft, make fun of Kris for another stupid trade, pick our early season Playoffs!?! favorites and predict this week's games. The Institute serves as my guest co-host for the week.

behind the numbers week 2

Episode #304 features a segment of here's my take, point-counterpoint with The Institute, a board bet update, this week's breakdown, and a special tribute to Patrick Swayze from the Oddsmakers.

making fun of vz on twitter

behind the numbers preseason: keeper edition

Episode 3.01 of behind the numbers features my take on VY, Coach P, and Michael Crabtree as well as a roundtable discussion with a panel of "experts."