draft battles

During the draft last weekend, in the multitude of time afforded by waiting for Brandon to make his picks, Billy, AJ and I began a GIF battle. In fact, I likely spent more time researching new GIFs than I did researching the players I drafted last Saturday. I had already studied anyone I considered taking so it didn't matter much for me. Apparently, this strategic allocation of time didn't work out as well for AJ. That's why he ended up a part of the draft battle for last place.

Draft Battle #1: The War of Attrition
40 acres & a mule vs. The Institute (#9 vs. #10)

40 acres
Best pick: Aaron Rodgers (Round 2)
Worst picks: If keepers counted, I'd say Michael Bush (Round 10). So instead I'll go with the 5 wide receivers (Greg Jennings, James Jones, Kenny Britt, Stevie Johnson, Lance Moore) of identical value drafted between rounds 5-9 or the wrap-around tight ends selected at the turn of round 13-14 (Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates).

AJ made a solid pick in Round 2 with Aaron Rodgers (aspirations to be the new K Rabbits?) but then didn't select another player that I would want on my squad this year. Slotting in Montee Ball as a second RB basically screams I read a fantasy magazine from June on my way to the draft.

The Institute
Best picks: Christine Michael (Round 11), Colin Kaepernick (Round 7)
Worst picks: Le'Veon Bell (Round 6), Jeremy Maclin (Round 12), Jonathan Stewart (Round 14)

With $12.50 in the bank for next year and underwhelming keepers like Andrew Luck and Rashard Mendenhall starting out the roster I understand the inkling on my nemesis to play for next year. And if he had assembled a team of Christine Michaels (a player with massive upside and the chance to be in a great situation for the future) and Michael Crabtrees (a player with a proven track record going for below market value because of injury) then I would have backed the move. But what value is there in drafting a borderline WR3 and sending him straight to the IR slot? Or in trading all those picks away just to get David Wilson a round early? Why not just go all out on every player with any chance of breaking out, let the chips fall where they may and sort it out through trades and keeper cash before next year's draft? In the end, I think VZ tried to have his cake and eat it too. Competing in the short term while building for the long term. He failed on both accounts.

Winner: No one. Ends like a Russian love story. They all die in the end.

Draft Battle #2: Anthem of Our Dying Day
showmedamoney! vs. the icon (#7 vs. #8)

showmedamoney!
Best pick: Kenbrell Tompkins (Round 9)
Worst pick: Jonathan Dwyer (Round 11)

Truthfully, Billy's best pick probably would have fallen to him in round 11 if he had waited. And that would have been a much better outcome than ending up with Dwyer. Not only was Dwyer an undertalented player in a crowded backfield, him getting cut mid-draft sent Billy into a tailspin. I would have been interested to see what this team was like with Aaron Rodgers leading it. (Not that I don't like Matt Ryan but I'm not sure getting Andre Johnson instead of Nicks/Colston/Steve Smith/Wayne makes the difference worth passing on Rodgers.) Might have missed an opportunity there.

the icon
Best pick: Eddie Lacy (Round 3)
Worst pick: Danny Amendola (Round 3)

Overbay didn't have a bad draft by any stretch but I'm not sure he capitalized on the trade with VZ. I'm not a big believer in the ability of SJax and Gore to continue being productive as the hurtle toward the age and workload that has put similar backs down for good in the past. And there is just no chance Amendola plays more than eight games this year. I love Lacy as a breakout candidate and think the icon was very smart with his tight end situation in pairing Gronk with someone who can keep the fire warm in Cameron during his absence. Five picks in the first 33 though with two solid keepers? That team should look better than this one.

Winner: Regret

Draft Battle #3: The Clone Wars
Jerry's Belt Buckle vs. The Commish (#5 vs. #6)

Jerry's Belt Buckle
Best pick: Maurice Jones-Drew (Round 2)
Worst pick: Emmanuel Sanders (Round 10)

Maurice Jones-Drew was an excellent value at the end of round 2 but they don't give out points for draft day value. A back of his age and size can only last so long against eight man boxes and a brutal carry load. I just can't buy in to a huge bounce back season. And two Steelers wide receivers again? How many times do you have to learn the same lesson? The Sanders pick cost Umphlett a shot at Lynch's backup Michael. If Lynch goes down or is let walk at the end of the season by the Seahawks, Umphlett will wish he had reached for Lynch's clone one round earlier for both now and the future.

When Chris found out he couldn't get Stafford on his team this year:

The Commish
Best picks: Trent Richardson (Round 1), Justin Blackmon (Round 12)
Worst pick: Knowshon Moreno (Round 13), Pierre Thomas (Round 16)

By the time draft day had come and gone, Trent Richardson had made me a believer but The Commish still hasn't. I love the value Jimmy got on Blackmon and Golden Tate. Both will start games for his squad this year. But why take washed up retreads for backup running backs unlikely to see the field very much if at all when they are both hopelessly stuck in committees? Vintage Commish teams get strength from the bench. It looks like waiver wire roulette is once again where Jimmy expects to find a championship. One sometimes can wonder whether a real human being still lurks below the Darth Vader mask The Commish dons in the league. I think that answer is yes after this weekend. In twelve live drafts I have completed with Jimmy I have never seen him surprised when it was his turn to pick until Saturday. With the turmoil that has obviously infiltrated The Commish's office, it's no wonder you can find the top man distracted. This is a developing story for this season.

Winner: The Commish but only because the plot of Empire demands it.

Draft Battle #4: The War to End All Wars (#3 vs. #4)
KayakPirates vs. K Rabbits

K Rabbits
Best pick: Tom Brady (Round 3)
Worst pick: Kyle Rudolph (Round 8)

I've said this to several people since the draft. Though I wouldn't say the K Rabbits had the best draft of anyone last Saturday, I walked away the most impressed by his strategy. Everyone in our league has a personality that defines most of their teams. Jeff takes a slow and steady wins the race approach. Overbay opts for established early in drafts before taking shots on breakout candidates. Jimmy builds around cornerstone players for their respective offenses. I'm the hype train. Kris always drafts Aaron Rodgers (or insert other quarterback man crush of the moment). Except he didn't. He changed his strategy thinking that whatever he was doing had brought him as far as he could go. I respect that as all of us our resistant to change (particularly people at the advanced age of the K Rabbits manager). This may not be a championship season but it could be the dawn of a new day for this franchise.

Aaron Rodgers when he found out that Kris passed on him in the first round:

KayakPirates
Best picks: T.Y. Hilton (Round 6), Josh Gordon (Round 10)
Worst pick: Dwayne Bowe (Round 4)

The more I look at Jeff's draft, the more I like it. He has solid players starting at every position and a lot of talent on the bench looking to push his starters for their spots. I love his breakout hype-laden package of WRs on the bench. The Griffin-Garcon connection will be strong as long as both can stay healthy. He's insured himself in case Griffin goes down with Matthew Stafford (who would have thought I'd talk about Stafford as a paragon of health two years ago?) And he took some calculated risks for the future. Jeff is getting more serious every year about putting his name on this trophy. I could tell by his late night pre-draft study session. Maybe it has something to do with the Crouton beating down his door for a chance at management but I think he gets rewarded this year for his tenacity. Jeff scooped some good players.

Winner: The K Rabbits never win anything.

Draft Battle #5: The War of the Roses
BackwoodCrazyCajuns vs. black is for sunday

BackwoodCrazyCajuns
Best pick: Larry Fitzgerald (Round 2)
Worst pick: Chris Ivory (Round 6)

You can't argue with the value that Brandon got any of his players at in the first five rounds. He started with the strongest keepers in the league and built a powerhouse around those players. However, he had to know better than to wait past Round 7 to select a quarterback. That is Fantasy Draft Strategy 101 stuff right there and we're not talking about some green rookie here. Brandon may be a champion of yesteryear at this point but he's better than missing on one of the top 12 QBs to snag a player of Chris Ivory's caliber. In the end, he'll pay something for this obvious mistake. He just has to hope it's the many hits and not this one miss that defines his season.

black is for sunday
Best pick: Lamar Miller (Round 3)
Worst pick: E.J. Manuel (Round 12)

Yep. Crushed it.

Winner: #TeamShade

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The draft recap podcast as told during three red eye flights to be known as Bill and Brent's excellent adventure.

may the odds be ever in your favor

Odds of this league making its inaugural trip to Vegas without me doing an odds column to preview the trip: 10,000 to 1

Odds that Kris Norris selected his beloved Aaron Rodgers with the #4 overall pick: 3 to 1

The question here is not the K Rabbits' desire to reunite with his longtime man crush but rather the opportunity that Rodgers falls so far. If Brandon takes a QB, I think he goes for Drew Brees. That or he can never again cross the Louisiana state line. VZ could take Rodgers just to be an a-hole or in some weird scheme to secure future draft picks in 2034. Umphlett hasn't been known to take quarterbacks early in drafts but he's not exactly been known for employing the same strategy two years in a row either. I think it's a safe bet to assume Kris will be nuzzling Rodgers' non-ironic mustache very soon.

Chances Billy does this move at some point in Vegas: 2 to 1

Chances that this is Jimmy's reaction: 1 to 5

Safest bet ever.

Odds on first junior Playoffs?!? league members to take over management duties in the next five years:

Flying Crouton/Bacon Bit: 5 to 1
Executive Vice Commish/Senior Vice Commish: 150 to 1
Sweet-N-Low: 25 to 1
double click: 30 to 1
Thunderette: 50 to 1

Mostly this is a function of age (although it's safe to assume The Commish might have to be committed to an asylum before he ever gives up control of his team... Al Davis went more quietly into the night than he will) as well as the future ability of promising progeny to handle the reins of a big league franchise. This kind of transition hasn't exactly worked out well for Hank and Hal Steinbrenner or Jim and Jeanie Buss. (Christina Pagniachi pretty much saved football in Miami though.) Too many more fifth place finishes and the restless of the Crouton might give in. You might remember him taking over an interview with behind the numbers last year. Rumor has it he is making a power play to oversee draft day operations on the ground for the KayakPirates squad in Vegas. The future is now.

Chances that Brandon gets married in Vegas over the weekend: 500 to 1
If he does, odds on his betrothed being his current girlfriend vs. the field: PUSH

I don't think it's going to happen but if you're inclined to bet on a long shot, I say bet the field on this one. Just a pure math play.



Over/under on the number of times the words "drunk like a fox" are said: 70

I'm taking the over. Way over.

Chances AJ makes the worst pick in the draft: Off the board

Six years running. No reputable casino is putting odds on that. Might as well bet on an SEC team winning the national championship. No money in it for the bookmakers.

Pre-draft odds to win Fantasy Bowl XIII:

BackwoodCrazyCajuns: 5 to 1
black is for sunday: 8 to 1
The Commish: 10 to 1
the icon: 12 to 1
KayakPirates: 14 to 1
Jerry's Belt Buckle: 18 to 1
showmedamoney!: 25 to 1
K Rabbits: 30 to 1
The Institute: 50 to 1
40 acres & a mule: 100 to 1

Chances this is Jimmy's reaction to being ranked third on this list: 1 to 5

Chances this is my reaction to his reaction: 2 to 1

Odds that this is in AJ's wardrobe for Vegas: 5 to 2

Chances that these are the full contents of Kris' suitcase: 2 to 1

Chances we ever have another Vegas draft again after this year: 10 to 1

We all have to make it back alive first.

pay for performance

You may have heard about Dan Wetzel's column this week proposing to pay players in the Little League World Series. One can only assume this is a tongue-in-cheek pushback against those who are clamouring for college football players to get their share of the billions of dollars being profited from their labor. Wetzel though does his part to style the column as an actual argument deadpanning every line he writes.

The term "pay the Little Leaguers" tends to send those incapable of seeing nuances into intense anger. Take a deep breath. This isn't about paying every kid who's playing ball in your neighborhood, just the ones who reach the big stage and are put on television. This isn't going to cause the formation of a union with an inevitable strike or contract holdout.  

And no one is really getting "paid." Call it "prize money" or a "scholarship" or something if it makes you feel better.  

The players deserve something from this booming, expansive event, even if it is just a few grand that go directly into a college scholarship fund or some kind of trust (if they don't go to college) that can't be accessed until age 18 or 21. A similar system could be worked out for international players based on their own cultural norms.

He goes on to cite how Little League Baseball, Inc. turned a profit of $2.8 million last year and ESPN has signed on for a $4 million cost to put these games on television.

I hardly want to give this unserious argument more credit than it deserves but as a little league coach myself I feel the need to respond to Wetzel's hyperbole.

As a coach, I'm a volunteer. I don't get paid or negotiate a contract. Not hoping that exposure here will get me to the next level in my profession. There's no shoe contract or endorsement deals to chase. There's just the thankless job of herding a dozen 12 year old boys and their parents through a season of ups and downs in the summer.

And I love it.

The kids love it, too. And, who knows, maybe some of them one day go on to play baseball professionally at some level. However, unlike college football players nothing is keeping them from doing it now. If the New York Yankees want to sign a 12 year old kid, why not? There is no age limit to participate in Major League Baseball. These kids at the LLWS aren't held back because of an arbitrary number on their birth certificate (for some more arbitrary than others, Danny Almonte) but they are held back by their skill level. The MLB is a meritocracy (at least when it's not corrupted by PEDs) and these kids are fun to watch but not ready for the big leagues by any stretch.

College football players face the opposite problem. Is there any doubt JaDaveon Clowney is ready to be lining up against his peers on Sundays? But the reason he can't be paid to excel at his sport is because of an arbitrary age limit imposed by the NFL and in which college football is a co-conspirator. After all, who is going to protect their product if the best players in the game can leave?

While $2.8 million is a nice sum for a company like Little League Baseball, Inc. and certainly helped by the lucrative ESPN deal, it's not even scratching the surface of college football money.

In college football, just the 15 richest programs are bringing in more than $1 billion in revenue. And there are about 100 more schools to account for in Division 1. When the NCAA recently decided to go to a playoff system for major college football, ESPN paid $5.6 billion for the rights to televise the games.

So while it might be a fun or cute thought exercise for Dan Wetzel to talk about paying Little League players, let's not confuse it with the actual injustice going on in college football. That's the nuance we should spend more time exploring.

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The Vegas preview pod featuring my new btn correspondent as well as a conversation with the Commish about the past, present and future of the Playoffs?!? fantasy league.

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behind the numbers returns with the icon announcing breaking news detailing his trade with The Institute. We go on to discuss if The Commish is overrated, the injustice of NCAA rules and look ahead to the keeper deadline in this megapod.

behind the numbers renewed for season 7

Creator touts “best season in our show’s history”

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media contact: Brent Woodcox, behindnumbers@gmail.com

Raleigh, N.C.—btn network President and CEO Brent Woodcox announced the renewal of the behind the numbers podcast for a seventh season today. Along with the renewal behind the numbers founder and executive producer Brent Woodcox was rewarded with a lucrative contract to continue managing the website, social media and online presence of the various btn multimedia endeavors.

The CEO said, “Working with an incomparable talent like Brent Woodcox is its own gift. Honestly, when the time came to sign the check to keep him onboard my only question was when I should stop writing zeroes.”

Woodcox initially demurred, “This is really a team effort. Actually, no it’s not. Not at all. I do all the work and I am incredible at it.”

“Doing this show for seven years has been a joy. We’ve seen a lot of changes and I didn’t know that we would ever be in this position. There have been many imitators over the years but most have been forgotten by the crushing judgment of history. Meanwhile, we’re focused on building out our global brand. Our ratings have never been higher and I am excited to kick off what I am sure will be the best season in our show’s history.”

The popular podcast’s seventh season will include 13 episodes and be supplemented by blogs and other online content as in the past. Woodcox promised “surprises” to come as well as new formats and more of the experimentation that has pushed the mold of fantasy entertainment and become synonymous with btn.  He also pledged extensive coverage of the league’s signature event and milestone—Draft Day in Vegas.

 

“It’s a real pleasure to continue to cover the personalities, the rivalries and the controversies of the greatest fantasy league in America,” Woodcox said.

 

The podcast will return with new episodes on August 15.