BTW, does this subject really merit a book? You're an old hag who has constantly surrounded herself with sketchy characters. No one wanted you to be president 8 years ago and no one wanted you to be president now. You're the epitome of the political establishment at a time when voters are looking to upset the system. You're not likable enough, Hillary. The only thing you lack more than charisma is honesty. The subject hardly merits this paragraph much less a whole book. Now will you just go away?
Nor am I talking about showmedamoney's unlikely ascension to the top of the league partially on the back of Dalvin Cook--I have it on good authority that Billy had no idea there was such a person 30 minutes prior to the draft.
I'm talking about the NFL, itself.
NBC's "Sunday Night Football" in the first two weeks of the regular season is down 7% in viewership compared to last year; ESPN's "Monday Night Football," is down 5%; and the averages of Sunday afternoon games on Fox and CBS are down 11% and 19% respectively, according to Nielsen data.
What happened? And why?
The ratings behemoth. The king of live TV. America's new pastime. Can it really be in decline?
There are a bevy of reasons that have been bandied about as possibilities for the decline in ratings and I want to take a minute to interrogate each one.
The Colin Kaepernick Theory
This theory came from a poll released in July of this year in which JD Power (so we're not exactly talking about Gallup here) asked those surveyed why there were watching fewer NFL games.
The pollster said it asked more than 9,200 people who attended either one football, basketball or hockey game whether they tuned into fewer games and why. Twenty-six percent of those who watched fewer games last season said that national anthem protests, some of which were led by Colin Kaepernick, were the reason.
While that result made all the headlines, what was glossed over in the clickbaity media was the fact that only 12 percent of those surveyed said they watched fewer games. 27 percent said they watched more football and 62 percent said they watched about the same amount as the season before.
Also, it's one thing to tell a pollster that you're bowing out of football viewership because of what happens during the national anthem, it's another thing to get so worked up before kickoff to turn off the game. If you are making your decision to watch based on players' political demonstrations before the game, you were never a die hard fan in the first place. You're just making an excuse for why you're not watching. This is the equivalent of blaming Hollywood's liberal agenda for the failure of blockbusters. Or blaming Trump's climate change philosophy for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. It might make partisans feel better about themselves but the explanatory value just doesn't hold up.
The Bad Product Theory
I encourage you to listen to the final 5 minutes of that podcast. (I'd actually encourage you to listen to this podcast all the time because all of the hosts are brimming with insights on why the game is the way it is.) The theory that Danny Kelly puts forward and has been arguing for is that offensive lines are in terrible shape right now. Lack of talent coming through the draft and lack of development in the offseason are putting defenses well ahead of offenses to start the season. A lot of the blame then is put squarely on the NFL's collective bargaining agreement which seems to be notable for only 2 reasons: 1) Roger Goodell has powers to suspend people in the league on power with the Galactic Emperor and 2) Players never, ever have to practice in pads.
Bill Belichick, not usually one for a good quote, but someone who knows a thing or two about football actually appeared to have a pulse when answering at least one reporter's question this week. He compared the problem of lackluster early season play to choosing the right golf club before taking a shot.
“I just think in general, fundamentally it’s difficult to play on the offensive and defensive line,” Belichick said. “You’re playing a contact position with pads, and you’re practicing it without pads the majority of the time. That usually develops a lot of bad habits, and a lot of the techniques that a player would have the chance to work on and improve with pads, that opportunity just isn’t there without pads.
“So it’s hard to improve at those positions when, a lot of times, you’re practicing techniques that are really not the ideal technique or, in some cases, incorrect, and it just develops bad habits, especially on the offensive line. . . . [W]ithout being able to practice, [this] favors the defensive players a little more, whereas the offensive unit has to work together and be able to block things at more of a game tempo with pads and penetration and combination blocks and things like that. It’s just hard to simulate those and hard to get the timing of those when you’re just standing up watching each other without pads on a lot. So, I mean, look, we’re all coaching under the same rules, but I think it’s harder, especially at that position, to improve when you really can’t practice your skill.”
To make his point, Belichick opted for an example from another sport.
“It’s like, you go out to the driving range and hit drives and hit balls, but you can’t go on the putting green,” Belichick said. “And then, to think that your putting is going to be at the same level as your driving when you can’t really practice it, it’s not really realistic. But, again, all teams are operating under the same set of rules, so it is what it is. But it’s hard. It’s hard at that position. It’s hard to tell a guy, ‘This is what you should do,’ but he really can’t go out and practice it.”
So that's it. People aren't watching because it's bad football. It's that simple.
But is it?
Does the average fan modulate their viewing habits based on the quality of the game? The NFL has awful Thursday night games and yet they are getting enough eyeballs on screen and butts in seats for that model to be too lucrative to pass up. If the NFL keeps sending so many Jaguars games across the pond, Trump is going to put a tariff on them. Yet the Brits just keep eating them up. ("It's no footie but about that time, hey chaps. Right-o.")
My point being that people watch football for lots of reasons that aren't based on the quality of play. They watch because their favorite team is playing. They watch because they have fantasy player going in the game. They watch because they have money on the game. Or they watch because it's a good excuse to drink beer in the middle of the afternoon. (Looking at you, Kris Norris. Just kidding. You don't need a good excuse or any excuse at all really.)
Which brings me to my final theory.
The Damn Millennials Theory
That's right. Millennials are killing football.
It shouldn't come as any surprise. We kill more often than Pennywise.
Our list of victims includes chain restaurants, fizzy, yellow beer, department stores, napkins, cereal, golf, homeownership, shopping malls and even most recently with the help of our evil leader, Jeff Bezos, grocery stores.
But this isn't just about millennial viewing habits. It's also about millennial culture and upbringing related to the game's more dangerous elements.
Furthermore, out of concern for the future health of their children, many protective mothers and fathers of Millennials are deciding their kids should not play tackle football at all. These attitudes could close the NFL’s pipeline to many talented players within the coming decade. But these concerns also have the potential to change NFL culture for the better.
Millennials (young people 9-30 years old) were reared by their parents in a highly sheltered and protected manner. The generation’s arrival was signaled by “baby on board” bumper stickers and AMBER Alerts, major child protection legislation and “helicopter parents.”
Because of the way they were reared, Millennials are the most risk averse in recent American history. Concerned about the safety of their “special” children, the parents of many Millennials have demonstrated a strikingly fearful reaction to a series of reports about the devastating impact playing in the NFL has had on many former players.
So depending on who you ask, millennials are too sheltered or soft or risk averse or socially conscious for extended football viewing habits.
I actually think none of this is true. Millennials are watching plenty of football. They're just watching it on their phones or other devices and they're doing without a cable package. They're gathering at a local sports bar or at a friend's house in greater numbers than previous generations. Football is perfect event television. It happens every week at the same time and provides a good excuse for a social gathering.
Football is too big to fail. What would possibly replace it in the American cultural pantheon? Baseball is yesterday. And everyone can stop trying to make soccer happen. It's not going to happen.
Sure, there are reasons to be worried about the long term health of the game as fewer and fewer kids play the game because of concussion-related fears and the effect that has on the overall talent level within the sport as a whole at the professional level.
But this ratings decline is a blip on the radar borne out of an overall trend in disruption in entertainment and media. Every major media and sports empire is dealing with the same problem. But the NFL is in the best position to figure out how to lock eyes onto screens in an environment when there is greater and greater competition for attention spans.
Despite some of the dire predictions, I don't think we'll be sitting around in 10 years at our 2027 fantasy badminton draft all wondering, "What happened?"
