preseason power rankings

10. BackwoodCrazyCajuns
Starters: 10
Bench: 10

In some ways it pains me to rank Brandon this low. I honestly don't hate his team this year and considering where he started, I have few qualms with his draft strategy. He clearly put in the time with research. He is obviously more emotionally invested in this year's outcome than he has been recently. And I think he was rewarded with his best team in four years. But considering he has finished 10th, 9th, and 10th while amassing just nine victories over the past three seasons, he still has a ways to go to get back into contention.

You have to love Drew Brees as a leader for this team even if he is bound for a regression back toward the mean after his otherworldly season last year. The receiver trifecta of Nicks, Bryant, and Welker is also bound to impress though for a team hoodwinked by injuries last year Brandon has not seemed to have learned any lessons about brittle players. The weak spot of this team is at running back where Frank Gore and Beanie Wells are both poised to fall off a cliff this year. I predict neither of these guys will be starting for Brandon or their respective NFL teams by week 4. Additionally, I have yet to see a place for Fred Davis in the new RGIII-led Redskins offense. This could also hold the Cajuns back on a week-to-week basis.

I'm not ready to cast Brandon as the modern day Prometheus of our league whose Burgergate theft has doomed him to a life of perpetual fantasy football torment. I think he can get back to the top. It might just take a couple more years to make up the ground.

9. K Rabbits
Starters: 9
Bench: 7

It would be fair to say I have been wrong multiple times historically post-draft about the relative strength of Kris' teams. Still, that's not going to keep me from picking against him every year. This version forms the bottom tier of the league with Brandon this year.

Starting from his weakest spot keeper wise since the system began, the draft did not go well from there as he spent the next few hours after the first round expired fully engulfed by the gap of concern. The average age of Kris' starters for week 1 is just a hair under 30 years old. He set the record by leaps and bounds for most players 30 or older selected in the first half of a draft.

That being said I actually do like Helu, Amendola, Donald Brown, and even LaMichael James to get a look at fantasy relevance sometime this season. When his older players are each injured in shuffleboard accidents, these guys could get their chance to shine and Kris could prove me wrong once again. But I'm not going to bet on it.

8. 40 Acres & a mule
Starters: 5
Bench: 9

7. KayakPirates
Starters: 8
Bench: 4

At some point during draft day I realized that it was the set from some weird body swap comedy between the draft strategies of these two teams. I don't know if it was the Crouton's hyperventilative moment at the idea of the torch being passed from father to son or the strange bathroom break by AJ witnessed live onscreen from two states away but something threw these managers off their game last Saturday. While the usually punchdrunk (and just regular drunk) 40 Acres squad adopted a clear safe strategy this year, it was the Pirates who swung wildly at each passing draft pick confounding the other managers at every turn.

I have no problem with Fitzgerald and Cruz for AJ but the draft took a turn for the worse at Eli Manning and Shonn Greene. Those are the kind of safe picks that turn out to be anything but in the end. Meanwhile, Jeff not only uncharacteristically avoided the wide receiver position this year, he did so in favor of two talented players whose track record runs longest on injuries rather than actual accomplishments.

AJ never really recovered after round 3 and even his best Jeff Smith imitation was left wanting. You'll never finish 5th as many times as Jeff has. Stop dreaming. And Jeff went the other way after his wayward turn at the top of the draft assembling some capable wide receiver depth and a potential long-term keeper in RGIII. I don't like either of these teams to make much noise this year but I'm already interested to see how this year's outcome may affect next year's draft strategy for both squads.

6. The Commish
Starters: 7
Bench: 5

No matter where he finishes, no team is talked about more and ink is spilled on no one more than The Commish. When this league was first started, no one figured out how to win more consistently than Jimmy. And just when the rest of the league started to catch up, the shift to a keeper league and the most dramatic change in stategy in our history once again left Jimmy at the top of the pile once the dust settled. But now a changing NFL may be The Commish's greatest challenge. For a manager who has historically stuctured his team around dominant game-controlling players, particularly at the running back position, Jamaal Charles' jersey has to look odd hanging in that closet. The lack of gamechangers and the adoption of spread offenses and committee attacks has required a new mold for The Commish and I'm not sure he's made it back to that drawing board yet.

Yes, he has every reason to grow complacent now that he has twice as many championships than anyone else in the league. And there are far more worthy distractions from fantasy football currently in Jimmy's life than at any time in the past. But I don't think it's true that The Commish has lost his fire or his dogged determination or his commitment to excellence. What he has lost is his blueprint. And that's not coming back even though I think it would be foolish to think that The Commish himself won't.

5. Jerry's Belt Buckle
Starters: 6
Bench: 2

I'm not going to say Umphlett pooped the bed after starting the draft with solid keepers. But AJ wasn't the only one to take a bathroom break on camera in the middle of the draft. Sweet 'N Low got in on that action as well. That can't be a good omen, right? Chris' crazy man love for Matt Forte and Greg Jennings were solid and predictable. It was the Mike Wallace pick that really threw that draft for a loop. Umphlett is a strong manager because he is disciplined. He adopts a best player available mentality on draft day and is very likely to maximize the output of his staters on game day. However, sometimes when discipline is left wanting, creativity is required. Wallace may have been the best available but Steve Smith and Brandon Lloyd were both better fits for the team he had yet to fully build.

Starting with a solid foundation, the squad was able to construct some running back depth but I think Chris will be regretting his selection of Kevin Smith over getting the Lynch handcuff Turbin as early as week 1. And while Philip Rivers, Stevie Johnson, Lance Moore, and even Michael Crabtree could provide value as backups either by earning playing time or in a trade, having no back up plan for Jason Witten's lacerated spleen was a miscalculation. I have no studied what the outcomes have been like for tight ends who start the season down a spleen but I can't think they are that positive. Solid team here but a questionable draft left Umphlett weaker than he should have been in some spots.

4. black is for sunday
Starters: 3
Bench: 3

There will be a wide variance of opinions on this team. It could legitimately renamed Steven Jackson and the lottery tickets as nothing is guaranteed for just about every player on this squad. But it is a vintage black is for sunday draft result. Nine players on the team are either rookies or second year players. Almost all of them have yet to hit what would be considered the apex of their careers. But I am firmly in the camp that I'd rather get on the train one stop too soon than get off one stop too early. At some point, I'm going to find the right place of origin for getting to the destination of a fantasy championship. Will that be this year? It's too soon to tell. I will say I feel like this team contains more players destined for a breakout than my previous few entries. And the thing about lottery tickets is you only need to cash in on the right one.

3. the icon
Starters: 2
Bench: 8

2. showmedamoney!
Starters: 1
Bench: 6

These teams finished the year similarly last year and started it similarly this year making a week 1 matchup of last year's fantasy championship all the more appropriate. Beginning with a solid foundation but also an early round keeper left these teams in a strong but complicated drafting position. With the recent developments for MJD, I'd rather have him on my squad than Andre Johnson, the more interesting rivaly for these two might be at the RB2 position with Fred Jackson vs. Trent Richardson. Billy doesn't need as much out of that spot as I expect Brady will end up with significantly better stats than Cam Newton.

Both of these squads will have to turn to their bench for help at some point this season because that's how fantasy football works and when they do they could find the cupboard bare. Both squads had uninspiring drafts after round 8 minus their respective keepers and that could haunt them once the bye weeks and injuries hit. I think Billy did the better job of shoring up his WR3 and TE positions and that's why I have him leapfrogging he defending champ. But we won't have to wait long to see where these two squads stand. This will be week 1's game of the week.

1. The Institute
Starters: 4
Bench: 1

As much as I have historically underrated the K Rabbits, I have similarly overrated The Institute's squads. Maybe it is because of my begrudging respect for my long time rival or maybe it is because we tend to draft in similar positions and target the same group of players but I always like where VZ ends up after the draft is finished. This year though I feel like he is a one man tier at the top of the league.

The strength of this squad is its bench. VZ didn't do anything unpredicatable but he didn't have to in order to form a strong unit. He had the keepers in place and the motivation that this was his last go-round with McCoy. I believe he capitalized. From snagging Mathews and Marshall at the turn of round 2/3 to stealing Rashard Mendenhall back at similar keeper value, The Institute used the VZRI to his full advantage this year. At every selection, he made the smart, solid pick and that's why he walks away from draft day with the best squad. As much as both managers will detest the comparison, this draft reminds me of some vintage Commish draft boards and I do think we will hold it up as a new blueprint for fantasy championships going forward by the end of the year.

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Post-draft analysis by league managers led by your host.

breaking brady

This began as a project for Grantland as an entry into their contest for hiring a fantasy sports writer. Surprisingly, I don't think I'm getting the job but I still thought this short entry was worth sharing here.

Rob Gronkowski (TE - New England Patriots)

If there were ever a Breaking Bad spinoff about the NFL hitmen that make fantasy players disappear, I’d hire Bill Belichick in the world-wearied “Mike” role and Tom Brady to succeed Aaron Paul as the fresh-faced, unexpectedly gritty “Jesse.”

SCENE
A darkened film room is filled by two shadowy figures and an unopened box of powdered doughnuts. Coach Mike wears a well-worn, gray hooded sweatshirt with nondescript stains. His quarterback, Jesse, eyes a powdery treat as the coach explains this week’s gameplan.

JESSE/TOM

“YEAH, SCIENCE!”

The big bad for the first season would be Gronkowski. There’s no way a man that large is fitting into a barrel designed for hydrochloric acid. Gronkowski might as well be the Walter White of this operation. No matter his behavior or mistakes, he is essential to this operation. With Antonio “Gus Fring” Gates no longer at the top of the tight end food chain, Gronk is in the empire business.

Tom Brady (QB – New England Patriots)

Did you just read that? He’s in a badass Breaking Bad spinoff. That will make people forget this haircut, this feud with Justin Bieber, and these Ugg boots. Okay. Maybe not. But still.

Calvin Johnson (WR – Detroit Lions)

I think it’s time we convene a summit to decide when it is acceptable to retroactively change a player’s nickname because real world events have made it impossible to continue with the current one. This happens in sports all the time. Team names found to be culturally insensitive are pushed to wayside for new monikers, new merchandise, and some hitherto undiscovered shade of teal to use on the uniforms. If Michael Bay continues defecating on my childhood onscreen, Calvin’s “Megatron” be our first order of new business for the summit. Johnson is too good to be associated with something so horrendous… or Shia Lebouf… but I repeat myself. If Matthew Stafford really has transformed into a top five NFL quarterback after his (obligatory injury history reference) then we’re going to need a new handle quickly. I hear “CJ2K” is available. Autobots, roll out!

Arian Foster (RB – Houston Texans)

There are some hard truths in life. As I careen out of my late twenties and into my early thirties, I am learning more of them everyday. One is: If you’re weird, you will have fewer friends. Yes, this truth is as timeless as the sandbox but no matter what our hipster-affirming, participation ribbon-awarding, manic pixie dream girl-pursuing culture tries to tell us, this one stands the test of time. Arian Foster didn’t get drafted higher in the NFL because he was unpopular. NFL GMs probably had no idea what to make of him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he told teams inviting him in for an interview that he would only grant it if he could speak solely in “Pterodactyl.” (Please take a moment to imagine a sit down with Foster and Jeff Ireland involving only mumbled squawks.) Despite his bouts with anti-awesomeness earlier in life, I say we accept Foster for what he is: an insanely talented, too brainy for his own good football player. And when we convene the nickname summit, can we also resolve to make sure this never happens again? Jeremy Lin thought that was in poor taste.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – Green Bay Packers)

I could go on for a couple hundred words about Rodgers’ stats, consistency, and general command of his offense. But the true testament to his greatness is that simply holding a clipboard in his general vicinity got a guy paid tens of millions of dollars. (Seriously, Matt Flynn, you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.) One of the most amazing aspects of the NFL is the anti-meritocracy aspect of the game. From players never getting paid their just value to a team until they’re tool old and broken down to provide that value anymore to the enduring popularity of every marginal franchise’s backup quarterback, the NFL isn’t a “what have you done for me lately” league as much as it’s a “what could you do for me tomorrow” league. It’s the opposite of high school where the goofy, gangly tangle of limbs that make up that geeky freshman is the coolest kid in school. The problem for a backup becoming a starter is now you have a backup. And the hottest girl in school just asked him to prom or made Russell Wilson her fantasy sleeper. She’s surprisingly knowledgeable about the Seahawks’ depth chart.

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The Institute joins the podcast to discuss the Lakers offseason, keeper decisions, and predict the first round of the draft.

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Oddsmakers joins the season premiere of the podcast to discuss keepers as well as the tension between athletics and academics at the collegiate level.

love it or leave it

Football, as a game and as an industry, is coughing out its dying days and there is no cure for what ails it.

At least, that what George Will, a prominent American political thinker and opinion leader, would have you believe in his latest column penned for Sunday's Washington Post. While I respect Mr. Will and his thoughtful approach to most subjects he explores, he is dead wrong about America's favorite game.

By now, the controversy surrounding head injuries in the National Football League and their potential effect on past and current players has made headlines in just about every newspaper and magazine in the country. Most notably flung into the public consciousness by the tragic suicide of Junior Seau this spring, at just the age of 43, CTE (or chronic traumatic encephalopathy) resulting from repeated blows to the head from extended professional football careers has become the target for blame on player's post-career health problems, mental issues, depression, and even suicide. The move by the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell in recent years to crack down on hits that lead to head injuries and protect players against themselves when it comes to returning from head injuries has only served to strengthen the call for more research, and ultimately, repurcussions when it comes to the post-career ailments of football players. Drastic rules changes and even the specter of Teddy Roosevelt are bandied about today as potential solutions for an ailing game.

But not by George Will. Mr. Will says the game is as sick as the players who have suffered from their participation in it and the prognosis is just as bleak.

However, there are just too many facts left out of the discussion.

For instance, Will quotes back the numbers of players who are over 300 pounds and participating in the professional game today. While that numbers was just three in 1980, it has now ballooned to 352. Football is literally becoming much bigger as game. Of course, what he fails to account for is that almost all of the players currently participating in the sport at the 300-plus level are offensive and defensive linemen. These are not the players typically involved in head injuries as those take place far more often in the secondary with running backs, linebackers, wide receivers, safeties, and even quarterbacks. The biggest linemen are much more likely to suffer from hip and knee problems or cardivascular issues as a result of their playing weight than they are brain trauma. But one is forced to wonder: Are these men big because they play football or do they play football because they're big?

Football is not the cause of obesity. If anything, heftier players probably maintain healthier levels of fitness through participation in the game.

It should be noted at heart that George Will is a baseball aficiado and old enough to remember when that sport was America's preeminent game. It's not unlikely that he yearns for a return to an era in which that was the case. So, naturally, he can't critique the game without insulting its fans.

Football is entertainment in which the audience is expected to delight in gladiatorial action that a growing portion of the audience knows may cause the players degenerative brain disease. Not even football fans, a tribe not known for savoring nuance, can forever block that fact from their excited brains.

Football can be dangerous. It has been described as participating in a series of weekly car crashes. Injury and pain are part of the game itself. However, football is not alone in its potential for peril. After all, we live in a country that has enjoyed boxing and MMA (sports Will basically puts in the realm of barbarians and those who would watch lions devour them) as well as NASCAR. Even baseball and soccer are not without casualties. America is the birthplace of extreme sports. Follow the linked text and you will see the darker side of sport and the lives they can cost. Examine the popularity of the franchises therein and you'll see that Americans are not afraid of danger in pursuit of entertainment.

After 18 people died playing football in 1905, even President Theodore Roosevelt, who loved war and gore generally, flinched and forced some rules changes. Today, however, the problem is not the rules; it is the fiction that football can be fixed and still resemble the game fans relish.

Will concludes his article by saying that football cannot change because fans like it the way it is and therefore it will die because of the inherent dangers involved. But how does he come to this conclusion? What is the end game here?

Are we supposed to believe that people are going to stop watching football because of its inherent dangers? That seems unlikely. As the game has gotten more dangerous over the timeline used by Will, the sports has exploded in popularity. The sport now commands $9 billion in annual revenue. The cost of the rights to televise even a portions of these games could feed the population of entire countries. Most recently, owners and players simultaneously blinked when facing the potential of a strike costing games because there is too much of a market to ignore the money that can be made. People are not going to find something else to do with their Sundays because some of the players get "jacked up." In fact, the opposite is much more likely.

So what's the alternative? Are politicians going to ban the sport? In what election year might this happen? Teddy Roosevelt ain't walking through that door, Mr. Will. There is not one vote in Congress for outlawing the game of football and if there was the overwhelming opposition to that candidate, Republican or Democrat, would coalesce faster than you can say "SuperPAC." Say what you will about the dangers of the game but on Sunday afternoons that game unites us just as much as listening to baseball on the radio ever did. No, the end of football will be a political decision.

Finally, Mr. Will fails to understand how the advances of technology and natural ebb and flow of changes to the game can rectify this problem. After all, this is a game that survived Mr. Roosevelt's rules changes and has flourished under Mr. Goodell's. It is a game that has marshalled on through the invention of the forward pass. Football changes and those who watch it year in and year out can track its progress. For the good of the game and for the good the players, the game becomes what it needs to be. Thicker, lighter helmets, thinner, quicker linebackers and fewer repetitions of the weekly car crash are all being intergrated into the game as we speak. This is America. There are no problems too big for us to solve.

And football is America. The attitude that emanates from both is largely the same. Love it or leave it.

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